Monday, 10 October 2016

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Stand aside

AUD/USD – 0.7590
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Although aussie recovered after finding support at 0.7553 and consolidation above this level would be seen, break of 0.7645-50 is needed to signal low is formed there, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7691, above there would revive bullishness for test of 0.7710, once this level is penetrated, this would signal upmove has resumed for gain to 0.7732, then headway to another chart resistance at 0.7758.

On the downside, below said support at 0.7553 would signal the fall from 0.7710 is still in progress and may extend weakness to support at 0.7530 but reckon 0.7500 would limit downside, price should stay well above support at 0.7472, the pair is likely to staged a strong rebound from there later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.

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