Stellaris Venture Partners brings in Cisco Investments as Limited Partner

Early-stage working capital firm Stellaris Venture Partners aforementioned the investment arm of world technology large Cisco Systems opposition. has are available in as a restricted Partner (LP) for its initial fund.

The technical school large endowed through unit Cisco Investments, Stellaris aforementioned in a very statement. It didn't disclose the number Cisco endowed.

“Cisco is committed to India’s next part of digital transformation through strategic investments within the country’s innovation scheme,” aforementioned Sameer Garde, president, Cisco Bharat and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), within the statement.

Stellaris, based by former prime executives at working capital firm Helion Venture Partners, is wanting to lift $100 million (Rs 636 crore) for the fund.

It had marked the primary shut at $50 million in Gregorian calendar month last year.

Cisco joins another technical school large, Infosys Ltd, in backing Stellaris. India’s second-largest software package services company had aforementioned in November 2016 that it endowed Rs 31.6 large integer within the Stellaris fund.

The VC firm’s alternative LPs, or investors, embody monetary establishments, company homes, entrepreneurs and family offices within the us, Europe and Asia.

In might last year, International Finance Corporation (IFC) had conjointly projected to speculate $10 million within the VC firm’s debut fund.

Alok Goyal, partner at Stellaris, aforementioned the VC firm can look to faucet into deep technology experience and world market reach of Cisco for the advantage of its portfolio firms.

Stellaris invests in seed and Series A rounds in technology startups. Its investment areas includes native language on-line services, technology-led monetary inclusion, provide chain networks, vertical machine-learning applications and world software-as-a-service businesses.

Its investments embody mobile business-to-business marketplace Wydr and on-line doctor consultation platform Mfine.

Stellaris was started by Goyal, Ritesh Banglani and Rahul Chowdhri when they quit Helion. till Dec 2015, the trio were managing a dozen corporations beneath Helion’s portfolio together with Housing.com, Lifecell, Dentys, TrulyMadly, Whatfix, BigBasket, Shopclues and Toppr.

Over the past year, excluding Stellaris a clutch of massive and tiny VC corporations together with IDG Ventures, Endiya Partners and fireplace Ventures conjointly declared milestones in their individual fundraising efforts.

Earlier this month, pi Ventures marked the second shut of its debut fund whereas 3one4 Capital hit the ultimate shut of its second fund.

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How to Pick the Best Trends

Everyone’s detected that commercialism with the trend is that the easiest method to place the percentages in your favor. nonetheless there’s uncertainty over a way to outline trends and the way to choose the simplest trends to trade. Here’s some tips regarding the simplest definitions and filters to use once commercialism with the trend.

Defining a Trend

It is shocking what proportion dispute there's over the question of a way to outline a trend. you'll realize a large vary of various opinions. One in style selection as a filter to see trend is that the 200-period exponential moving average. Another is that the 50-period easy moving average having crossed on top of or below the 200-period easy moving average. If you search, you'll realize lots of alternative technical, indicator-based definitions. In fact, the definition of a trend may be summarized as a consecutive series of upper lows and highs (an uptrend), or lower lows and lows (a downtrend). sadly, that's rather troublesome to outline mathematically, though most traders World Health Organization have place during a affordable quantity of your time reading value charts will tell you whether or not a sexy trend exists simply by victimization their own eyes. The question remains, is there some way to out line the existence of any trend, that we are able to use to a minimum of establish that some kind of trend exists, before we have a tendency to try and apply filters to choose out the foremost helpful, profitable trends? i think there's a straightforward answer: a basic upwards trend exists if the value is on top of wherever it absolutely was three months agone, and downward if below. In markets, the increase of fall of value over a comparatively extended amount like this has been shown to produce a footing. because the Forex market is additional mean-reverting than most liquid speculative markets, the optimum amount to use may be a very little shorter than it's in alternative markets. Results may be improved by stipulating that the trend should even be on top of or below its level measured half-dozen months agone. a real upwards trend, as an example, has the value on top of wherever it absolutely was each three and half-dozen months agone.

Using these measure as a baseline, let’s verify some statistics for the 2 most liquid currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Assume that over the past sixteen years, you had bought every try at the beginning of any week it absolutely was on top of its costs from each three months and half-dozen months agone, and exited the trade at the weekly shut, or sold the other way around if below these historical costs. Ignoring spreads, commissions, and any attainable positive or negative nightlong swap, the results would are as follows:

Using the ADX Indicator as a Trend Filter

This commercialism methodology isn't conferred as an entire strategy, even as a sign of however profitable a trend may be. there's clearly a grip here: most weeks saw moves from hospitable go on the direction of the prevailing trend. The question is, will this easy strategy be improved by filtering the trends somehow, and solely taking the trades once the trend is somehow seen as stronger or a lot of reliable?

The ADX indicator purports to indicate the “strength” of a trend. It will this by mensuration the full quantity of directional movement in an exceedingly single direction over a given recent amount. the worth of the ADX indicator will vary from zero to one hundred. Typically, a trend is claimed to be robust once the worth of ADX is twenty five or higher. It looks like Associate in Nursing applicable filter to use to our trend definition. I applied it to the foremost recent 3-month equivalent by employing a amount of thirteen weeks (the “short term” element of our outlined trends), and examined the results that may are achieved by mistreatment ADX levels of twenty five and thirty as filters, that were as follows:

Both ADX levels improve the win share and average profit per trade, the latter will increase significantly. Note that though ADX thirty created a lower average profit, its win share was slightly above what would are achieved exploitation ADX twenty five.

Using “Blue Sky” as a Trend Filter

“Blue sky” is a neighborhood of value that has not been visited for an extended time. associate degree ancient belief of traders says that the value moves additional quickly and directionally through price areas that have recently been empty. this is often the speculation behind break commercialism. After all, if the worth makes a brand new 6-month high by breaking out this level, by definition, it's unlisted there for a minimum of six months. maybe we are able to apply the subsequent filter to our advantage: examine the weeks wherever the value created a brand new 3-month high or low price throughout the previous week. In different words, there was a break last week of the 3-month value channel within the direction of the prevailing trend. Here square measure what the results would have looked like:

Interestingly, this “blue sky” filter would have given even better results than using strong ADX values as a filter. When both filters are combined, the results are even better.

Conclusion

The most reliable non-discretionary definition of whether a trend exists is the simple measurement of whether the price is both higher and lower than it was using a historical look back. Three-month and six-month time periods have worked very well in Forex markets in recent years. Stronger trends produce more reliable short-term trading results than weaker trends, and the strength of a trend can be easily measured using the ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator.

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Paytm aims to create world's largest digital bank - with 500 million accounts!

Paytm Payments Bank aims to make the world’s largest digital bank with 500 million accounts, imaging a web money services supplier of everything from wealth management to credit cards and exchange mercantilism.

The bank, backed by the country’s largest digital billfold of identical name, launched formally Tuesday and is targeting those that don’t have access to skilled money services. That aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to broaden access for the under-banked within the nation of 1.3 billion individuals.


“We area unit unveiling our market fund, launching our positive identification and we’ll have the capabilities to permit enterprises to open business accounts,” Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma same in an exceedingly phone interview that coincided with a proper inauguration in Indian capital attended by government minister Arun Jaitley. “Digital payments was our entry purpose, we would like to become a vertically-integrated money services company.”

India’s government is supporting money technology with incentives and a string of initiatives like digital lockers and user-authentication supported its digital identity program, Aadhaar. Paytm was one in all fewer than a dozen entities that secured permits to begin payments banks, which might settle for deposits and remittances however cannot lend.


It same it'll operate a mobile-first bank with zero fees on on-line transactions and no minimum balance. Paytm Payments Bank is majority-owned by Sharma. 197 Communications, that operates Paytm and is backed by Alibaba cluster Holding Ltd. and Jack Ma’s emmet money, holds the remaining 49%. The bank grew out of Paytm’s digital billfold, that assembled over 100 million customers when Asian country took high-denomination bills -- or nearly 90% of the worth of money -- out of circulati ..

Sharma might have found some way round the restrictive hurdles that bar disposition. 197 Communications can introduce a open-end credit and provide monthly installment-based loans, he said. “We can launch share mercantilism and insurance product terribly shortly,” he added. “We wish to become associate internet-age money services company.”


In India, the standard industry veers heavily toward those with wealth as poorer voters struggle to pay bills or transfer cash to relatives. “Buying insurance and investment through our wealth management product can become wide accessible through the payments bank,” same Sharma.

Despite the proliferation of smartphones and low cost knowledge rates conveyance web access to millions, ancient lenders have nonetheless to create giant digital banking capabilities. And Indian shoppers aren’t nonetheless entirely snug with digital money startups. Sharma same that works in Paytm’s favor.

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Bubble in Bitcoin? Well, Google Trends suggests jitters all around

As bitcoin is approaching the $10,000 per unit mark in world markets, investors have gotten nervy concerning the chance of a bubble within the crypto-currency.

Data on the market with Google Trends shows rummage around for ‘Bitcoin Bubble’ hit its highest level (100) early weekday around 4.30 am (IST) within the past seven days.

If you input a keyword in Google Trends, it might show that historical interest within the term on a scale of zero to a hundred, relative to the very best purpose on the chart for a given region and time.

According to BNP ParibasBSE -0.90 %, there appear to be several symptoms of a bubble as way because the costs of crypto-currencies area unit involved. The key feature is that several participants seem to be shopping for crypto-currencies as a result of their costs area unit mounting. one in every of the options that aid the bubble is that there's a tough limit for bitcoin supplying of twenty one million, that is predicted to be reached solely in 2040.


On a year-to-date basis, bitcoin has surged nearly ten times to $9,739 until Nov 27 from around 997 it quoted on January 1, 2017. within the domestic market, bitcoin hovered round the Rs 7.35 large integer mark on weekday morning.


There area unit concerning seventeen million bitcoins nowadays. Market consultants believe if bitcoins get adopted a lot of and a lot of, the worth can rise well because the offer is finite. restricted offer helps entrench the extremely speculative nature of the currency. It’s an excellent feature by the designers.


BNP Paribas in a very report aforementioned a bubble doesn't mean that it'll burst presently. It depends on a number of things, not least the chance of self-fulfilling expectations that the worth can still rise and this may usher in more participants.


While the dotcom bubble inflated and burst, the capital that was pleased into the world expedited the emergence of a number of today’s giants like Amazon and Google. “We area unit seeing a shift of resources currently. is that this a misallocation or seeds of a very worthy shift? Time can tell. we tend to suspect crypto-currencies area unit here to remain,” the brokerage aforementioned.

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Google has a new site for tracking your investments

Google Finance got a whole plan on weekday.
• It provides data that is custom to every user, due to information it learns from search
• We'll walk you thru the new Google Finance options, together with the new home screen, world markets, your stocks and additional.
• Google Finance got a whole plan on weekday.
• The recreate replaces AN aging portal that looked noncurrent however still provided valuable data. The new Google Finance is smarter and takes advantage of your search history. for instance, since Google is aware of what you are looking up, it mechanically pulls in ticker symbols for firms you've got examine and might advocate others to follow.
• It's rolling resolute users currently, thus some folks can ought to wait on a daily basis or 2 for the recreate hits their browsers.
• Here's a glance at the new Google Finance.
This is the new Google Finance homepage. It shows data on stocks or firms that you've got recently searched. during this case, we tend to hunted Nvidia and Netflix. At the lowest, Google recommends stocks. the correct of the screen offers a snap of U.S. and international markets.

You'll get a snap of stocks you own or need to trace. However, you cannot produce completely different portfolios, that was a novel feature within the previous version.

This is the new native markets page. It shows the Dow-Jones Industrial Average Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index and also the NASDAQ Composite within the U.S., with charts and performance for every market.

The chart may be updated to mirror changes over the past month, 3 months, one year, 5 years or from the start of mercantilism. the lowest of the page shows native market news.

This is the planet markets tab. it's a bit like international markets.
Here we tend to see a snap of the Dow, the German DAX Performance Index and a glance at the performance of the Mumbai securities market. There are news feeds if you scroll down.

Here's a glance at the news feeds. The topics comprises data relevant to the tab you've got chosen. Here we tend to see the highest stories on the homepage that square measure associated with school firms we've searched. Hulu, Tesla, Uber, sq. and SpaceX square measure all lined. conjointly note that since the news is any down the page, there is further data on international exchanges and currency exchange rates.

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Gold rate today: MCX futures rise on global cues; Silver gains

Gold costs rose 0.31 per cent to Rs 29,471 per ten grams in futures trade nowadays as speculators created recent positions, taking positive cues from international markets.

Gold costs rose 0.31 per cent to Rs 29,471 per ten grams in futures trade nowadays as speculators created recent positions, taking positive cues from international markets.
At the Multi commodities market, gold for delivery in Gregorian calendar month was commercialism up by Rs 91, or 0.31 per cent, to Rs 29,471 per ten grams in a very trade volume of 317 heaps.

The metal for delivery in Gregorian calendar month affected up Rs 69, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 29,586 per ten grams in a very turnover of 45 heaps.

Market analysts aforesaid rise within the valuable at the world market influenced gold costs at futures trade here as participants enlarged bets.

Meanwhile, gold edged up the maximum amount as 0.14 per cent to USD 1,289.70 an oz. in Singapore nowadays.

Silver costs rose by Rs 113 to achieve Rs 39,354 per weight unit in futures commercialism nowadays as speculators raised bets amid a firm trend in precious metals overseas.

In futures commercialism at the Multi commodities market, silver for delivery in Gregorian calendar month was commercialism higher by Rs 113, or 0.29 per cent, at Rs 39,354 per weight unit in a very business turnover of 298 heaps.

In a similar fashion, silver for delivery in March shot up by Rs 111, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 40,030, continuance a business turnover of 33 heaps.

Market analysts aforesaid recent positions engineered by speculators in line with a firm trend in international markets for precious metals influenced silver costs at the futures trade. Meanwhile, silver was up 0.06 per cent to USD 17.02 an oz. in Singapore nowadays.

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Litecoin - the perfect complement to Bitcoin

A system capable of administering the largest volume of transactions of Bitcoin
Litecoin, like different digital currencies, is currently associate plus for people who operate through the most brokers within the market.

Crypto-currencies became one among the foremost in style assets to speculate in in recent times. once the technology of ‘blocks’ there are several payment strategies that area unit threatening to finish money intermediaries.

Litecoin may be a international network of payments of open code that's altogether localized and with none central authority backing it up, developed as a free software system project printed underneath the MIT/X11 licence. additionally it makes an attempt to supply confirmation times for quicker transactions than different digital currencies and presents itself as a business medium complementary to Bitcoin.

Its forte resides in its block-chain. Its system is in a position to influence the largest volume of transactions for its counterpart Bitcoin.

This favours sellers that acquire quicker confirmations and at a similar time they need the likelihood of awaiting additional confirmations as they sell the foremost pricey assets.

Litecoin, like different digital currencies, is currently associate plus for people who operate through the most brokers within the market, e-Toro as an example.

Investors will trade Litecoin in an exceedingly safe and secure manner, during which they're going to be able to open an extended or short position in step with the present value of Litecoin in an exceedingly matter of seconds.

Litecoin has up quite 1,300% this year, however  investors recognize once is that the best moment to shop for and sell is difficult. due to eToro and its community of quite 5 million users, investors are going to be able to learn from the leaders of the market, discover a way to invest and replicate their ways.

In addition, users that register with eToro can receive a virtual account of 10,000 greenbacks to style their portfolio and take a look at totally different investment ways. Through this platform, investors are going to be able to produce and manage portfolios “based on people” and contend in monthly mercantilism challenges.

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Commodities: Natural gas, gold slip despite US dollar weakness

Commodities placed on a mixed performance on weekday despite weakness within the dollar, amid a pointy drop by gas futures and a dip in gold that traders attributed to a pick-up in risk appetency.

At the closing bell on weekday, the Bloomberg trade goods index was 0.05% lower to 86.99 when the spot United States of America greenback index people 0.47% to 92.78 - a two-month low.

Front month brant goose petroleum futures were up by 0.49% at $63.86 a barrel on the ICE, aboard a jump of 1.60% to $58.95 a barrel for West TX Intermediate.

Friday's jump in oil futures came despite a rise within the weekly United States of America oil rig count from Baker Hughes of 9 to 747, amid a report from Bloomberg that the Organisation for crude oil exportation Countries and also the Russia had reached associate degree agreement to increase their oil output curbs till the tip of 2018.

December 2017 NYMEX gas futures on the opposite hand born 5.22% to $2.81/MMBtu.

Industrial metals did notice a bid within the wake folks greenback weakness, with all the most LME-traded contracts moving higher, bar zinc.

Precious metal gold on the opposite hand fell back, with the Gregorian calendar month 2018 COMEX contract down 0.39% at $1,291.80/oz..

Three-month LME copper advanced to $7,002 a metric t, up from $6,962 a t.

"Today was another vacation skinny commercialism day however LME base metals continued to carry steady through the morning and created more gains within the afternoon sessions because the USD weakened through 1.1900 vs monetary unit.

"Reports that OPEC and Russia have a tentative agreement to increase production cuts to the tip of 2018 took petroleum (Wti) towards $59/barrel.

This, at the side of hopes of a "Black Friday" retail bonanza helped raise United States of America equity indices. As capitalist risk sentiment improved, gold costs lost some momentum, border back to 1285 space," aforesaid analysts at Sucden money.

Over among soft commodities, March 2018 CBoT corn was down 0.56% to $3.55 a bushel, aboard a 1.36% drop to $4.3475 a bushel for similarly-dated CBoT wheat.

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Gold Is Back in Vogue

As of 2:20 p.m. in ny, volume on the Comex was 52% on top of the 100-day average for now of day, as traders and investors roll their positions into Gregorian calendar month futures from the Gregorian calendar month contract that’s expiring on Monday. combination open interest is headed for a 3rd straight quarterly gain, the longest stretch since 2009, whereas holdings in exchange-traded funds square measure close to the best in an exceedingly year.

Prices have advanced this month, keeping the metal not off course for the most important annual gain since 2010 once 2 monthly declines.

Gold has benefited from a weakening greenback, warm inflation that’s spawned divisions among U.S. Federal Reserve System officers over a policy path forward, and uncertainties over President Donald Trump’s decide to cut taxes.

In Europe, haggle over Brexit and Germany’s struggles to make a coalition government have underpinned demand for the metal as a haven.

“Gold is commencing to attract attention of plus allocators,” Saint George Gero, a brand new York-based decision maker at blood corpuscle Wealth Management, same in AN email. The bullion futures exchange is “quiet and steady as we have a tendency to anticipate a lot of headlines on taxes within the U.S. and a Fed hike in Gregorian calendar month,” he said.

Bullion futures for Gregorian calendar month delivery slipped 0.4% to settle at $1,291.80 an oz. on the Comex in ny. The contract’s open interest has surpassed December’s since Tues. The metal has advanced 1.7% this month and is up regarding 12% in 2017.

Aggregate open interest, a tally of outstanding futures contracts, rebounded on Wednesday once declining the previous 2 sessions.

A majority of gold traders and analysts surveyed in an exceedingly weekly Bloomberg poll printed weekday saw gains ahead, because the greenback slumps.

In different precious metals:

• Silver futures slipped on Comex
• Platinum futures rose on ny Mercantile Exchange, as Pd futures fell

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Time to spot multibaggers in logistics sector? Top 5 stocks to look at

Most of the stocks within the infrastructure sector have given positive returns of up to 200%. Topping the charts is Arshiya that rose 220 % to date within the year 2017, followed by Transport Corporation that gained 92%, and Balurghat Technologies rallied 86% within the same amount.

Logistics sector was in limelight before the implementation of the products & services tax (GST) however pared some gains presently when it had been enforced in July, however there square measure many stocks which may strike gold for investors particularly when infrastructure standing was given to provision sector.

Earlier on, the govt has given infrastructure standing to provision sector, covering cold chain and deposit facilities.

The government has been engaged on ways that to draw in a lot of investments into transport and provision as a part of efforts to bolster infrastructure development within the country.

Most of the stocks within the infrastructure sector have given positive returns of up to 200%. Topping the charts is Arshiya that rose 220 % to date in 2017, followed by Transport Corporation that gained 92%, and Balurghat Technologies rallied 68% within the same amount.

It is positively a step within the right direction from the govt to spice up infrastructure which might successively aid economic process. Infrastructure standing would permit firms within the sector to access cheaper credit.

“With the provision sector being accorded with infrastructure standing, cheaper credit can currently be created on the market from banks.

This, in turn, can facilitate drive the growth plans, thereby easing the provision chain bottlenecks that square measure presently plaguing the arena,” Nitasha Ravi Shankar, Sr. vice chairman and Head of analysis, affirmative Securities told Money control.

“We believe this may be a positive for all provision sector stocks, as well as Allcargo provision, figure provision, etc.,” she said.

Roads and bridges, ports, shipyards, landlocked waterways, airport, railway track, tunnels, viaducts, terminal infrastructure as well as stations and abutting industrial infrastructure square measure all a part of the transport and provision classification. Urban transport and provision infrastructure also are a part of it.

According to specialists, price of funding can return down significantly which might facilitate the businesses in pushing their cost plans.

The infrastructure standing would additionally facilitate companies in reducing provision price that is incredibly high, particularly for exports.

Since provision sector needs Brobdingnagian investments to spice up the country’s trade granting infrastructure standing would facilitate the business attract investments.

“Cost of funding may return down by up to fifty basis points; those going for external industrial borrowing may graspeven cheaper,” Siddharth Sedani, vice chairman - Equity informatory, Anand Rathi told Money control.

“Logistics prices of exports square measure terribly high in Bharat and because of this Indian product square measure less competitive in world markets.

This standing would facilitate the arena get credit at competitive rates and on a semi permanent basis as rising provision price impacts the world aggressiveness of exporters,” he said.

Currently, provision account for 13% of gross domestic product that is above several alternative countries like America (9 percent) and Federal Republic of Germany (8 percent).

Analysts expect the price of provision to cut back by a minimum of 200 bits per second so creating Indian product a lot of competitive in domestic in addition as exports market.

“Granting Infrastructure standing to the supplying sector can change the arena to urge access to longer tenor loans at competitive rates (saving of roughly fifty bps) and additionally provide access to external industrial borrowings (ECB),” Atish Matlawala, Senior Analyst, SSJ Finance & Securities told Money control.

“We like Gati, VRL provision and Allcargo because of its leadership position within the phase they operate and its pan Bharat presence,” he said.

We have collated an inventory of high 5 stocks that square measure seemingly to learn the foremost within the provision sector:

Navkar Corporation: Target Rs217

Navkar Corporation restricted is engaged in instrumentality Freight Station (CFS) operations and connected activities. the corporate is targeted on capitalizing the on the market opportunities within the provision area in western Bharat.

Its principal products/services that it manufactures/provides embody payload Handling, payload Storage, and Maintenance and Repairs of Containers.

“The installation of six RTGCs at Panvel has augmented Navakar’s capability to over 500,000 TEUs. we have a tendency to expect profit to register a 35 CAGR over FY17-19 for the most part on account of volume ramp-up at Vapi,” aforementioned Sedani.

“With capex to be totally completed in FY18, and revenue from swollen operations to kick in step by step in FY18 (and totally in FY19), the corporate is about to report a leap in revenue and profit,” he said.

Sedani more additional that rail operations at Vapi square measure expected to start presently which can result inlarger use. we have a tendency to worth the stock at a P/E of 20x FY19e, below the multiple commanded by the arena leader.

TCI Express: BUY| Target Rs660

Indian organized supplying market is miniature with solely some of huge organized players however the provision sector was among most under performing sector for last 3 years despite most awaiting GST bill came into play.

TCI specific could be a market leader, in worth terms, within the Indian specific delivery market. With a fleet of over 4000 (contracted) containerized vehicles and regarding 550 own branches, TCI serves over 40,000 locations.

“TCI specific could be a leading company with low debt in its book because it is plus utility and when this move by the govt, it'll be ready to explore chance victimization the low price of debt.

If we have a tendency to compare stock value movement then it additionally outperformed its peers in last one year,” Santosh Meena, Sr analysis Analyst, allegory Invest mart told Money control.

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Higher freight costs a risk for agriculture commodity market

Rising freight rates and therefore the increasing probability of an occasion of the La Semitic deity weather development square measure among the risks that farmers, investors and commodities traders face in 2018, in step with a number one agricultural loaner.

Bumper international harvests in recent years have provided importers and consumers with lower costs of grains and oil seeds. but international inventories square measure slowly declining creating markets a lot of liable to volatility, Rabobank same in its annual outlook report revealed on Tuesday.

The bank could be a massive loaner to international food and agricultural businesses and it closely monitors the moves on food commodities markets.

Stefan Vogel, head of agri arte -fact markets at Rabobank, same that the provision and demand state of affairs for several agricultural commodities was alteration.

“There square measure clouds of uncertainty on the horizon and provides aren't enough to sustain costs ought to a significant event like La Niña disrupt major agricultural areas, like the America and South America,” he added.

Among the danger factors that might push up international food costs square measure international freight prices still as oil costs.

Earlier this month the UN Food and Agricultural Organization forecast that the world’s food import bill this year would hit the second highest on record partially as a result of rising shipping prices.

The Baltic Dry index — AN indicator of worldwide bulk artifact freight prices — has accrued the maximum amount as sixty six per cent this year because the availableness of latest bulk freight provides has slowed.

Bulk freight rates are trending higher since early 2016, when declining when the 2008 monetary crisis, that coincided with the accrued delivery of dry bulk vessels.

“We square measure seemingly to ascertain a shift within the movement of commodities worldwide, with higher freight rates wearing the aggressiveness of exports that come back from farther abroad,” same the report.

Weather is another risk issue that might bring volatility to grains and seed costs.

 The America National Oceanic and part Administration is statement a 65-75 per cent probability of los angeles Niña developing this year and lasting into the primary quarter of 2018. reckoning on its strength, the weather development may cause waterlessness in grain areas within the Americas and flooding in Asia’s vegetable oil plantations.

Traders and farmers also will have to be compelled to keep a detailed watch on the movements of speculative investments that have up sharply.

“Speculators are terribly active in agri artefact markets in 2017,” same the report, noting that a lot of had placed pessimistic bets across grains, oil seeds and alternative agricultural commodities.

Hedge funds and alternative speculative investors designed record pessimistic positions in agricultural markets this year, as well as arabica occasional, sugar, cocoa, and soyabeans. the rise in trend-following recursive system funds have supplemental to the growing positions, in step with traders and brokers.

These bets “could exacerbate arte-fact value movements going forward, providing each opportunities and risks” for food and agricultural businesses, same Rabobank. Among individual commodities, the bank expects international demand for occasional to still grow, resulting in a rather optimistic read on 2018 costs.

Arabica occasional, presently at concerning $1.25 a pound is forecast to trade at a median of $1.34 within the half of next year.

Demand for cocoa conjointly continues to rise, driven by developing nations’ style for luxury commodities, though massive international stocks mean value spikes square measure unlikely.

The outlook for wheat is optimistic relative to current costs at concerning $4.20 a bushel as a result of AN expected 7.5m weight unit international offer shortage, that excludes China.

Wheat surface area this year was at a record low this year, and costs square measure forecast to achieve a median of $4.70 within the fourth quarter of 2018.

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What Does the Future of Bitcoin Look Like? The Usage of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been around for pretty much a decade currently, introduced back in 2008, the principal of Bitcoin being to get rid of intermediaries.

The U.S Treasury has known bitcoin as a virtual currency, whereas it’s additional unremarkably represented because the initial crypto-currency and also the largest of its kind by total market price, presently being $19.2bn.

The general accord was that Bitcoin would take the globe by storm, however we've however to visualize the storm, that was conjointly seen to uproot business banking as we all know it these days, a fabric decline in sticky bank depositors a negative for bank prime line revenue.

As things stand, well-known firms that settle for Bitcoin for payment embrace Amazon, Apple Expedia, Overstock, Subway, Reddit, Microsoft, Dell, Tesla, Bloomberg.com, Kmart, Sears, Gap, Victoria Secret.

Figures on Bitcoins square measure few and much between, however with over 100,000 merchants and vendors acceptive bitcoin as payment, the numbers recommend that progress is finally being created, the quantity of merchants acceptive Bitcoins having accumulated by four fold between 2014 and 2015 alone.

Research created by university finished this year that there square measure between 2.9m and 5.8m distinctive users actively employing a crypo-currency note case, most of them victimization Bitcoin, that is much larger than the calculable 0.3m to 1.3m distinctive users back in 2013.

The side for the patron is that the reduced fees for transactions, wherever merchants and vendors settle for Bitcoins with fees of between 1/3 to but two, definitely additional competitive than mastercard fees, the draw back clearly being the shortage of protection to the patron or the merchandiser for that matter, bitcoin users unprotected by refund rights and charge backs, although this is often changing…

The latest news is that the legitimation of the employment of bitcoin in Russia, with Japan’s passing a law acceptive bitcoin as tender maybe even additional compelling once considering however so much behind legislation is in different G7 countries, coupled with the G20, despite the wide acceptance.

The value of bitcoin has definitely been control back by the shortage of recognition and regulation in key economies, suggesting that Japan’s move might begin a issue, which might be quite boon for the bitcoin bulls, once considering the actual fact that the worth of bitcoin accumulated by V-day, reminiscent of $1bn, to require the market cap to $19.5bn.

In the end, Japan’s move is sensible and Russia is wanting to imitate, the shortage of regulation permitting Bitcoin to be used as a method to clean personal matters.

Russia is wanting to enact to acknowledge Bitcoin as a monetary instrument by next year for simply that reason and that we will expect different countries scuffling with concealment to imitate.

Bitcoin’sFuture Conflict

There’s an extended thanks to go before Bitcoin becomes a globally accepted variety of currency, virtual or not, with some counties having outright prohibited the employment of Bitcoin, although the quantity of nations square measure decreasing, with the broader issue being the shortage of regulation on Bitcoin itself plus issues over technology limitations

Technological development over the short to medium-term will definitely influence the worth of the markets and, as a world restrictive landscape develops, we'd expect the usage and demand to extend, driving the worth, the categories of returns that don't seem to be apparent with money, still presently maintaining its ’Cash is King’ standing.

Whether investors contemplate Bitcoin as another hedge or associate investment remains to be seen. Either way, once considering the year-on-year surge within the price of Bitcoin, simply keep of two hundredth, the sole manner is up ought to restrictive walls still fall and group action volumes still rise, with Bitcoin having hit associate uncomparable high $1,400 last week.

Bottlenecks can beyond any doubt limit group action volumes over the near-term, going the door open for additional ancient payment ways to contend, however it's solely getting to be a matter of your time before payment systems square measure upgraded and Bitcoin has the chance to become a primary payment mechanism.

In the end, the success and evolution of Bitcoin across thought economies and on the far side can doubtless boil right down to the attitudes of Central Banks.

The PBoC earlier within the year had declared that it might be creating a larger effort to manage the Bitcoin market, as well as establishing a taskforce to examine and guarantee Bitcoin exchanges had the suitable anti-money washing systems, warning exchanges that they might be closed down if in violation. 

The actions of the PBoC light-emitting diode to bound exchanges suspending activity, leading to Bitcoin losses at the time. Ultimately the actual fact that the PBoC is wanting to wash up and increase oversight may be a long positive and suggests that the employment of Bitcoin can surge within the years ahead, despite the autumn over the near-term attributed to the accumulated oversight.

The intentions of Satoshi Nakamoto was ultimately to knock central banks off their perch, the artificer of Bitcoin publicly discussing a distrust towards central banks. 

The evolution of Bitcoin has definitely opened the eyes of the many, transfer into question the necessity for central banks ought to Bitcoin become the tactic of selection, as there would be no demand for the supplying and settlement.

The use of Bitcoin might take away bound roles of central bankers, however within the finish Bitcoin can ne'er be to blame for or perhaps be during a position to influence financial policies. 

Central banks can still ultimately to carry the fate of Bitcoin in their hands, regulation and acceptance at government level very important to its success and continued evolution cross border. 

For now, central banks seem to be diligently wanting into the technology that Bitcoin has introduced, wanting to use the suburbanite technique of record keeping, additional unremarkably referred to as the block chain or distributed ledger, the inducement being to finish and log transactions during a real economy additional effectively.

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When Will Oil Demand Begin To Taper Off?

It’s potential that 2017 might go down because the year once the thought of peak oil demand went from speculation to potential reality, as firms and energy analysts began estimating once demand growth for oil would begin to taper off.

The debate over whether or not peak demand is returning has been fierce, however it’s potential that the excessive target the potential highland in world oil demand ignores a lot of vital, immediate considerations which will have a way larger impact on costs.

While the predictions of once peak demand might come back vary quite significantly, they principally purpose to levelling demand within the developing world because of retardation growth, stable or declining demand within the industrial world because of the widespread adoption of electrical vehicles, and also the replacement of oil by gas or renewable energy.

New demand can come back from petrochemicals, driving the requirement for lightweight finish merchandise and decreasing the requirement for heavier crudes, in keeping with McKinsey & Company.

Electric and self-driving vehicles are going to be the key disruptors.

EVs, that presently account for under 0.2 % of all cars, can compose common fraction of all new automobile sales by 2040 according to IHS Mark it, increasing their overall share to 16 %.

The IEA revised its demand prediction downwardly on by 100,000 bpd for each 2017 and 2018, to 1.5 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd severally.

The group, that has caught some flak for its improbably optimistic estimates of U.S. sedimentary rock production, conjointly cautioned that higher non-OPEC production next year can keep costs from rising higher than $60. costs slouched slightly  on the rear of weaker demand forecasts and reports of upper inventories within the U.S.

Peak demand has become a longtime plan, to the purpose that BP’s CEO Bob Dudley was able to quote a definite date. Asked once peak oil demand would arrive, he recommended June two, 2042.

Related: China’s Mysterious Arctic Silk Road

But is that the case for peak oil overblown? ought to the market be a lot of involved with short term factors, instead of the still distant prospect of retardation or declining demand?

OPEC doesn’t suppose peak demand can precede 2040, citing robust current demand and also the continuing economic process within the developing world.

Daniel Yergin, energy skilled and vp of IHS Mark it, thinks it’s “funny to be talking concerning peak demand” once annual demand growth remains thus robust, and once economic activity within the developed world, significantly North yank and Western Europe, has recovered.

Jamie Webster of BCG’s Center for Energy Impact noted that oil demand in 2017 was significantly robust, rising 1.6 million bpd.

Demand growth can probably still be robust for years before peaking, however Webster points to a way larger short problem: the rising decline rate and also the reduction in capex committed to new production.

Placing a tough figure on decline rates has been tough, however the rule of thumb has been 3–6 % a year. Offshore tends to say no quicker than onshore, whereas sedimentary rock declines quicker than anything.

The average decline rate has spiked partially because of the growing stress on sedimentary rock production, wherever decline rates square measure high. in keeping with one estimate, 2016 had the very best decline rate on record, and BCG assessed the decline rate for 2017 at 9 % or 8.8 million bpd.

The Eagle Ford Region in Texas, in keeping with the EIA, is adding new production, however its heritage production fell to date on balance out the rise, effort the sector with zero web modification between Gregorian calendar month and November.

Related: Saudi Arabia’s Risky Market Share Sacrifice
This is probably a way a lot of vital thought than peak demand. Earlier this year the IEA ran alarm bells, warning that the autumn in capex on developing new production (a results of the slump in oil prices) would result in near-term shortages as decline rates accelerated. The group’s five-year forecast saw higher costs as spare production falls to a fourteen-year low in 2022.

Companies spent $450 billion on upstream in 2016—about 25 % but what they have to fulfill demand growth and compose for the decline rate.

A potential consolation is that the indisputable fact that new sedimentary rock production will come back on-line comparatively quickly, creating up for the upper decline rate.

But shale, despite the IEA’s voluminous optimism, can’t shoulder the burden on its own. whereas acknowledging that sedimentary rock has over-performed and tried quite resilient amidst low costs, Webster points out that its growing importance to provide the availability the provision balance can increase the chance of supply shortages within the near-term, impacting costs in additional immediate ways that than the distant, nebulous prospect of peak demand.

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Forex - Euro Falls In Asia As Germany Coalition Talks Appear To Fail

The monetary unit fell in Asia on weekday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel aforementioned on weekday she would meet the German president to tell him that she had did not kind a coalition government with the Greens and therefore the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

The decision to fulfill President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, World Health Organization has the facility to decision a replacement election, signaled that Merkel wouldn't get a minority government with the Greens when the FDP unexpectedly force out of the coalition talks.

"It could be a day of deep reflection on the way to proceed in Deutschland," Merkel told reporters. "As chancellor, i will be able to do everything to confirm that this country is well managed within the tough weeks to come back."

EUR/USD relieved 0.40% to 1.1744.

USD/JPY listed at 112.5, up 0.05%, whereas AUD/USD listed at 0.7561, down 0.04%. GBP/USD listed at 1.3205, down 0.07%.

The U.S. greenback index, that measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.26% to 93.85.

Earlier, Japan reported its balance for October came during a a surplus of with a surplus of ¥25 billion, narrower than the ¥33 billion seen and imports rose 18.9%, compared with a 20.2% gain seen and exports rose 14.8%, missing the up 15.8% gain expected. anon weekday, European financial organization President Mario Draghi is to testify on the economy and financial policy within the European Parliament in national capital.

This week, investors are targeted on Wednesday’s central bank meeting minutes for contemporary clues on the doubtless mechanical phenomenon of financial policy. U.S. information on consumer goods orders are the highlight of the holiday-shortened week. Markets stateside can stay closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving vacation.

Last week, the greenback fell against a basket of the opposite major currencies on weekday as investors remained skeptical over whether or not Republicans will pass a historic tax overhaul.

The House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill that may lower company taxes and cut individual taxes for many households in 2018, during a step towards the largest U.S. tax code overhaul since the Eighties.

But the legislation could face a harder fight within the Senate amid resistance at intervals Republican ranks. Senate lawmakers are expected to vote on their version of the bill when this week’s Thanksgiving vacation.

The greenback was conjointly pressured lower by news reports that special counsel Henry Martyn Robert Mueller’s investigators searching potential Russian interference within the 2016 U.S. election had subpoenaed President Donald Trump’s campaign requesting documents.

The reports adscititious to issues that the probe can hinder the Trump administration’s ability to pass tax reform or alternative business reform measures that may support the economy.

The monetary unit pushed higher, with EUR/USD up 0.18% at 1.1791 late weekday.

Sterling people from a two-and-a-half week high to 1.3213 in late trade when the eu Union perennial Associate in Nursing early Gregorian calendar month point for Prime Minister Theresa could to maneuver on Britain’s Brexit divorce bill.

Meanwhile, the Australian and New island greenback each all over the week sharply lower against the buck because the narrowing unfold between U.S. and each Australian and New island government debt undermined their charm as carry trades.

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Of Oil Prices and Tankers

Oil costs square measure stealing the show yet again, once it involves crucial the long run course of the tanker market. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Cotzias Intermodal Shipping noted that “for another week, oil looks to be the foremost volatile and attention-grabbing artifact to look at.

during this phase we’ll scrutinize a number of the most important factors touching the artifact worth as a full. goose worth closed yesterday at $62.90 down from 64.65 last week, that was the best level reached since June 2015. Efforts by global organization and Russia to chop output by the on-going policy, that is already expected to increase throughout the primary quarter of next year further, have checked excess offer in a shoteavor to shore the artifact worth and obtain and end to the worldwide offer glut that has sent costs plummeting over the past 2 years”.

According to Linos Kogevinas, business govt with Cotzias Intermodal Shipping, “OPEC has conjointly frequently revised its international demand outlook upward since Gregorian calendar month, noting associate expected increase to 33.42m barrels next year. global organization and alternative producers can meet once more on the 13 November in Vienna and square measure expected to comply with an additional extension of production probably for an additional 9 months up till the top of 2018. The recent wave of arrests in Asian nation has been touted as a corruption purge. However, seeing as this can be conjointly associate empowering move for prophet bin Salman UN agency has been associate outspoken supporter of OPEC’s production cuts past 2018, it additional will increase the possibility of those cuts being extended further”.

The shipbroker other although that “however, these efforts square measure being undermined by a 12-month continual increase in US oil that has been triggered by the magnified worth. US sedimentary rock production is ready to additional increase in Gregorian calendar month by approx. 80,000 barrels, with the US rig variety increasing quickly throughout the past months. Reports are really confirming another 9 rigs other throughout the past days, that brings up the full variety up to 738 rigs, a rise in far more than hour compared to 12 months back. whereas international stocks square measure falling for the primary time since 2013, we tend to won’t be shocked to envision the rise in US and alternative provides halting this decline inside next year and along conjointly halt the upward path the value of the artifact has followed within the past months”.

Meanwhile, Kogevinas other that “one of the wild cards to stay a watch on is South American nation that has been facing varied problems in repaying its large debts.

Following a $1.1bn payment on state-oil company PDVSA’s issued bond last week, President Nicolas Maduro declared that this could be the ultimate time it paid its creditors totally which his intent is to hunt a restructuring concerning future debt payments, that is golf shot Venezuela’s ability to pay its debts altogether into question.

Formally defaulting, might quite conceivably place additional stress on the country’s oil output and thus on the artifact worth.

Venezuela’s production has already been beneath extended pressure within the past year, with October marking its lowest production in twenty eight years, at 1,863m barrels per day.

The said problems place oil costs in a very tenuous, unstable state of affairs. With caution concerning the rising US production, that might probably lead to a worth correction, expectations for next year ought to maybe be less optimistic than what they presently are”, he over.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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Gold Remains Preferred – Wild Volatility & Internet Dependency Weigh Against Bitcoin

Gold Remains most popular – Wild Volatility & net Dependency Weigh Against Bitcoin
Gold Remains most popular – Wild Volatility & net Dependency Weigh Against Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s wild volatility, as costs swing among a $2,000 range, is one amongst the explanations why the digital currency mustn't be compared to gold, in step with one analyst.

Bitcoin’s surge to just about $8,000 in recent weeks has junction rectifier some analysts to take a position that it's taking interest and capital off from gold, that has languished in an exceedingly tight vary between its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. However, patron saint Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street world Advisors, aforementioned that this theory is nothing however the newest urban story.

“It’s a story of epic proportions on a similar level as alligators in the big apple sewers,” he said. “I have talked to several money advisors and investors and nobody has aforementioned that they're mercantilism their gold to shop for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin is seeing a powerful bounce when four days of mercantilism pressure that pushed costs down by nearly $2,000 dollar. in step with Kitco’s collective charts, Bitcoin last listed at $6,539.90. At a similar time, Dec gold futures last listed at $1,278.10 an oz.

Milling-Stanley aforementioned that ultimately, Bitcoin is nothing however a replacement speculative trend that's likely to finish badly for investors. He equated finance in crypto-currencies to getting to a casino. He supplementary that in contrast to gold, bitcoin can ne'er been a store important .

“I don’t need one thing in my portfolio that's one hundred times a lot of volatile than gold,” he said.
While Milling-Stanley has very little love for crypto-currencies, he aforementioned that he will see a future for the block chain technology. This has the potential to revolutionize money markets, he added.

“I am assured that there's a future for block chain however I don’t believe its optimum use is for crypto-currencies,” he said. “Bitcoin is employed to procure the foremost unpleasant criminal activity.”

As for gold costs, whereas the market is encumbered in an exceedingly tight mercantilism channel, Milling-Stanley aforementioned that he remains assured that it’s solely a matter of your time before costs escape to the top side.

He supplementary that growing world uncertainty is getting down to weigh down equity markets, that makes gold a gorgeous defensive investment. He supplementary that he sees few drivers which will keep stock costs close to record valuations.

“Gold continues to possess an area as a solid portfolio diversify because it has no correlation with falling equity markets,” he said. “When we tend to do see a jailbreak in gold i believe it'll be a lot of doubtless to the top side and that i am assured we are going to see costs back on top of $1,350 by the beginning of the year.” – Neils Christensen

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Stock market poised for a 'melt-up' as it begins strongest months of the year

Stock market technicians say the securities market setup into year-end appearance robust, and therefore the market ought to still raise its gains.

The S&P 500 is up 15 p.c year so far. once it has been that robust in years past, any gains have followed with a median 4.9 p.c another within the final 2 months of the year.

Technicians say the market seems healthy and if it will "melt-up" into the ultimate 2 months of the year, a foul meltdown is not essentially within the cards at once.

Who wants a Santa rally to spice up year-end gains, once the momentum is already this strong?

Technicians area unit concerning} crowing about the supposed seasonal setup for stocks this year. Seasonality describes predictable market behavior supported time of year. The rule of thumb is might to Oct is that the weakest time, whereas Nov to April is that the strongest. A Santa rally usually happens at the top of the year, and may be a positive streak of many p.c.

But this year, technicians say the market trend was already robust, and it seems very little will stop it currently that the most effective time of year is here. per analytics firm Kensho, within the past twenty years, the S&P 500 has up a median gain of 1.4 p.c in Nov 75 p.c of the time, and gained another 1.4 p.c in December, additionally 75 p.c of the time.

That's the formula for a market melt-up, says Strategas technical analyst Todd Sohn. however during this case, he does not see the melt-up essentially turning into a tough meltdown.

The final 2 months of the year area unit usually a decent time for the securities market, particularly once it's already recorded a double-digit gain for the year.

Technicians say the market may move higher in Nov and December anyway because it starts the strongest 6 months of the year, however Sohn says a powerful fifteen p.c gain within the S&P 500 to date this year already provides it an additional push.

This year's S&P 500 rally isn't a rare event. It's happened 17 times since 1950, and in those years, the gains in Nov averaged a pair of.7 percent, and for the 2 final months of the year the S&P averaged another 4.9 percent, Sohn said.

"Really what it's, is strength against strength. If you employ a baseball analogy. If you place up ten runs through six or seven innings, you are in all probability golf shot up plenty additional within the last couple," he said. "The seasonal backcloth is inform to stronger-than-average returns, and you simply have to be compelled to be concerned here for consequent 2 months."

Ari Wald, technical planner at Oppenheimer, agrees that the year-end ought to be significantly robust.

"Seasonals area unit certificatory here and particularly therefore once you are trending higher. Not solely area unit Nov and December 2 of the best-performing months of the year, they are even stronger once you are beginning the month higher than the 200-day moving average," Wald aforesaid. The S&P five hundred closed out Oct at a pair of,575, whereas the a pair of 00-day is at 2,423.

"In general, we're simply moving into the most effective six months of the year. ... For January specifically, may be a month of the year once strength tends to bring forth strength," he said.

Wald aforesaid the securities market gains don't seem to be a risky "melt-up" however additional of a gradual healthy market that's walking higher, supported his indicators.

"Internal breadth is broad-based and we're seeing no signs of stress in credit indicators," he said.

Technicians area unit observance out for warning signs, just like the 30-year high within the variety of bulls versus bears within the Investors Intelligence weekly survey, a investor sign.

"There's some things we're aware of heading into next year. On the sentiment facet, the survey information is incredibly aggressive," aforesaid Sohn.

Bulls reached 63.5 p.c against simply fourteen.4 p.c for bears. an expansion higher than thirty points to elevated risk and an expansion higher than forty needs "defensive" measures. The unfold now could be the very best since the first a part of 1987, months before the Black weekday securities market crash.

"It does not create the market vulnerable nonetheless. It's additional that in 3 to 6 months, however will participation look. is that the rally attending to narrow?" Sohn aforesaid. "I suppose we tend to still have longer before you sound the alarm thereon."

Wald aforesaid the S&P gained thirty p.c in 1987 once the bull-bear unfold reached current levels.

Another take-heed call is that the flattening yield curve, with the unfold between biennial note yields and 10-year note yields at a pre-financial crisis high of concerning seventy five basis points. A flattening yield indicates the potential for associate degree inversion in yield, wherever the longer-duration 10-year yield would fall below the biennial yield. that's a recession signal.

But technicians do not see that as a near-term event. The biennial is rising in anticipation of Fed rate hikes and a stronger economy. whereas the 10-year yield isn't dropping attributable to economic worry.

"The truth it's being driven by a better biennial yield instead of a declining 10-year makes it a trifle completely different than alternative cycles," aforesaid Sohn. "It's additional of a shoulder shrug."

Wald aforesaid the priority a few blandish curve is mindless. "Investors forever and perpetually worry a few blandish yield curve, however traditionally the market continues to rally in these environments against a blandish curve," he said. "Historically it has been the inverted curve that is been the indicator ... it might be that a blandish curve may continue for consequent 3 years."

Global macro planner Vincent Deluard at INTL FCStone, argues in a very recent note that a melt-up has already been current and says they occur once optimistic sentiment gets additional extreme. He studied 76 previous melt-ups within the Dow Jones industrial average and says they are doing not essentially presage future losses.

In terms of the broader market, of the foremost recent 67 melt-ups, the S&P 500 averaged a 6.8 p.c gain within the year following them, he said. that's but the index's average gain of 8.1 p.c "but a so much cry from a meltdown."

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