Monday 29 August 2016

Markets are sending mixed signals on the Fed

The US dollar is advancing the theme of a hawkish Fed today but other markets aren't sending the same signals.The S&P 500 fell on Friday on worries about higher rates but the stock market has bounced back today. It's up 8 points to 2177.


Importantly, the S&P 500 is back above where it was before the Jackson Hole speakers started.In the bond market, two year notes are a good indication of what the market is thinking about the Fed. The reversal hasn't been as dramatic as stocks but US 2s are down 2 bps today to 0.8250% after hitting 0.8447% on Friday.
What will make the signals even more skewed in the coming days is that it's month end so flows could push the correlations out of line.
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