Weekly Export Sales: Corn delivers, soybeans disappoint

Due to the central closing every week agone, USDA’s weekly export sales knowledge comes daily late. however the most recent report still carried many insight, as corn and wheat exceeded trade expectations, whereas soybeans came up short.

Weekly export sales for corn destroyed 56.9 million bushels in previous crop sales and another 3.4 million bushels in new crop sales for a complete of 6.3 million bushels. 

That was twenty second below last week’s total however still 59 more than the previous four-week average. The weekly pace required to achieve USDA’s forecast is currently 22.8 million bushels.

Corn export shipments for last week were significantly lower, at 23.6 million bushels. 

The No. one destination was North American country, with 8.0 million bushels, followed by Japan (4.4 million bushels), Colombia (3.6 million bushels), Peru (3.3 million bushels) and Central American nation (1.8 million bushels).

Soybean export sales, meantime, fell quite in need of trade estimates of 37.7 million bushels, coming back in at 27.9 million bushels. previous crop sales destroyed 22.6 million bushels, and new crop sales extra another 5.3 million bushels. that quantity was additionally well behind the previous week’s total of 45.6 million bushels, however it still stayed previous the weekly pace required to achieve USDA’s forecast, now at 17.9 million bushels.

Soybean export shipments for the week ending Jan. 18 reached 37.7 million bushels. 

China was the same old No. one destination, accounting for 19 million bushels. alternative prime destinations enclosed Siam (6.3 million bushels), West Pakistan (5.1million bushels), Dutch East Indies (2.6 million bushels) and European country (2.6 million bushels). 

Weekly export sales for wheat beat trade estimates of 12.9 million bushels, with a complete of 15.7 million bushels in previous crop sales and another one million bushels in new crop sales. 

That’s additionally nearly triple the previous week’s total of 5.7 million bushels, and therefore the quantity edged out the weekly pace required to achieve USDA’s forecast, now at 12.8 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments of 13.9 million bushels was Martinmas not up to every week agone however 4 wheel drive on top of the previous four-week average. 

The Philippines were last week’s No. one destination, with 4.0 million bushels, followed by South Korea (2.6 million bushels), Mexico (2.5 million bushels), Iraq (1.9 million bushels) and Taiwan (1.6 million bushels).

Sorghum export sales of half-dozen.5 million bushels were down 12-tone system from the previous week and were Martinmas not up to the previous four-week average.

 Export shipments of 8.6 million bushels were a lot of more than every week agone, with the overwhelming majority headed to China. 

Cotton export sales destroyed 67,700 bales and painted an enormous drop from the week previous (down 75%) and therefore the four-week average (down 70%).

For More Detail:- www.goldcruderesearch.com

Contact Us:- 8602588927

Commodities: Softer led by stronger USD, US rate hike expectations and rising inventories - ANZ

According to the analysts at ANZ, the softness in the commodity complex continued today as a combination of an imminent rate hike in the US, stronger USD and rising inventories has seen investors flee the sector.

Key Quotes

“Crude oil prices fell heavily after EIA data showed a strong build in inventories in the US. Supplies climbed 8.21 million barrels to 528.4 million barrels. This followed on from comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, who said global crude oil stockpiles are draining slower than expected. US crude oil production was also higher, hitting 9.09mb/d. When combined with the huge speculative long positions in the market, it’s not surprising that prices sold off so strongly. However, there is increasing talk of extending the OPEC production cut agreement. Iraq and Oman have already voiced their support for an extension.”

“Base metals were broadly unchanged, except nickel which suffered a heavy selloff. Reports that Indonesian miner PT Aneka Tambang is preparing to apply for a permit to export low grade nickel ore shook the market. Expectations had been that exports would not resume for some time, after the government reversed the 4 year ban earlier this year. Copper was relatively unchanged as the push and pull between supply side disruptions and rising inventories increased. Data showing China’s February imports of copper products fell 19% y/y also weighed on the price.”

“Iron ore spot prices fell sharply as sentiment declined on the back of weaker steel prices in China. Rebar prices have fallen over 5% over the past week. This was despite China’s trade data showing strong growth in iron ore imports. Volumes for February increased 13.4% to 73.6mt, despite weather related supply constraints in Australia.”

“Gold prices tumbled as investors continued to increase its bet on a Fed rate hike next week. The better than expected ADP payroll number pushed market pricing of a rate hike to 100%. With prices dropping below the 50 day moving average, the weakness is likely to persist in the short term.”

“Agriculture markets were weaker, with losses centred on the grains market. Corn fell for a third straight day, as a stronger USD and increasing expectations of better Brazilian corn production weighed on the market.”

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold ends at 3-month high as dollar wobbles

Gold snapped a three-session losing streak Thursday to settle at a three-month high as the U.S. dollar lost ground to chief rivals the day after a fuzzier-than-expected interest-rate assessment from the Federal Reserve.

April gold GCJ7, +0.17% gained $18.10, or 1.5%, to settle at $1,251.40, its best settlement since Nov. 10, 2016, according to FactSet data. Some metals traders read the Fed minutes out Wednesday as casting doubt on the timing and pace of future rate increases.

In the notes from the Fed’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, members indicated an interest in hiking rates “fairly soon,” but noted that the fiscal policy of President Donald Trump remained a wild card.

Earlier hints that the Fed would move to raise rates rapidly had led to a stronger dollar. That, in turn, usually provides a headwind to dollar-pegged assets including gold, making them less attractive to buyers using other monetary units.

Following the release of the minutes, the dollar, however, retreated and the WSJ Dollar Index, BUXX, +0.00% a measure of the U.S. dollar against 16 major currencies, fell 0.4% to 90.80 on Thursday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, DXY, +0.01% which gauges the buck against six rivals, edged down 0.1% to 101.10.

“The dollar weakness is one the primary reason that we are seeing this rally. Moreover, what traders are looking at is the probability of a rate hike in March and it is not great at all,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst with Think Markets. “This sentiment is providing a lot of tailwind for gold.”

Gold held on to its morning gains and remained firm after a weekly report on jobless claims rising 6,000 to 244,000 in the week ended Feb. 18, near the 237,000 forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch and hanging around its lowest levels since the early 1970s.

The precious metal has also managed to break out of what Aslam referred to as an “ugly range” where it had been stuck for the past several days.

“Today traders just didn’t want to lose out or bet against a rising market,” said Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic adviser at Rosland Capital LLC.

The exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust GLD, +0.87% advanced 1.1%. The iShares Silver ETF SLV, +0.76%  added 0.5%, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners GDX, +0.16% climbed 0.9%.

In other metals trading on Comex, May silver SIK7, +0.58%  rose 16 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $18.18 an ounce. May copper HGK7, +0.77% fell 8 cents, or 3.2%, to settle at $2.66 a pound. June palladium PAM7, +0.37%  rose $4.40, or 0.6%, to settle at $774.60 an ounce. April platinum PLJ7, +0.56% climbed $9.20, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,011.90 an ounce.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Sebi chief UK Sinha says commodity market needs more legal clarity

Sebi chief U. ok. Sinha says low participation of producers and hedgers is the principle subject for the capital market regulator

Securities and trade Board of India (Sebi) chairman U.okay. Sinha on Friday stated that low participation of producers and hedgers is the primary subject for the market regulator, while launch of recent products similar to choices will need amendments in the Securities Contracts laws Act, or SCRA.

    Sinha, whose time period as the Sebi chief is ending on 1 March, mentioned the principle center of attention of the capital market regulator has been possibility-free integration with the ahead Markets commission, the erstwhile commodity market regulator.

“the combination wants extra felony clarity,” mentioned Sinha at the global commodity derivatives convention, 2017, geared up by means of Sebi.

so as to reinforce liquidity in the commodity derivatives market, Sebi is making efforts to attract extra contributors corresponding to foreign portfolio buyers (FPIs) and mutual cash, Sinha stated.

“there may be lack of transparency and effective worth discovery in commodities,” he mentioned.

Sinha delivered that there was need for a transparent legal provisions for spot markets as neatly. “Our spot market can be extremely fragmented,” said Sinha.

On 20 January, the market regulator had floated a discussion paper inviting comments on the way to settle and worth commodity options product, lack of which used to be making it tough for exchanges to launch this product.

For this, the regulator had proposed amendments to stock Exchanges and Clearing firms rules to allow options which have commodity futures as underlying.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold trades higher on soft dollar; likely to remain volatile in near term

Gold and silver on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were trading higher in early trade on Thursday after the US currency slipped from one-month highs in Wednesday’s trading session on upbeat US economic data.

The yellow metal on MCX was trading 0.31 per cent, or Rs 91, up at Rs 29,234 around 10.25 am (IST), while the white metal was up 0.26 per cent, or Rs 112, at Rs 42,763 per 1 kg.

Nirmal Bang Commodities in a research note said, “We expect prices to trade higher for the day as the dollar drifted down from one-month highs hit in the previous session on upbeat US economic data.”

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its latest holdings stood at 840.87 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. Holdings of the largest silver-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10,410.74 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

On Wednesday, spot gold prices in the international markets climbed by 0.35 per cent to close at $1232.6 per ounce as the dollar came off its highs on Wednesday, shrugging off earlier pressure from stronger-than-forecast US inflation and retail sales that added to expectations for near-term US interest rate rises.

For Thursday’s trading session, Angel Commodities Broking said, “We expect gold prices to trade higher given the weakness in the dollar although the economic indicators from US are clearly showing optimism, while the rate hike or not uncertainty will keep gold prices volatile in the near term.”

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Sensex extends losses even as global markets rise

In the broader market, the BSE Midcap fell 0.2%, while BSE Smallcap was little changed
The benchmark indices on Tuesday opened flat with negative bias even as Asian markets rose to 19-month highs as prospects of economic stimulus in the United States lifted the Wall Street to fresh record highs overnight.

At 09:48 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 28,285, down 66 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 8,779, down 26 points.

In the broader market, the BSE Midcap fell 0.5%, while BSE Smallcap slipped 0.3%.

"Technically, Nifty is well placed above the 8,770 levels, which indicates strength and has a potential to test 8,840-8,870 levels in coming trading sessions. For Intraday support placed at 8770-8740 levels, as long as it sustain above the same, the bull rally is likely to continue its up trend," said brokerage Nirmal Bang in a technical note.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 306 crores on Monday, while domestic institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 171 crores, provisional data avilable with BSE showed.

Sectors and stocks

BSE Auto (down 1%) was the top sectoral loser, led by losses in Hero MotoCorp (down 2%), Bajaj Auto (down 1.5%) and Tata Motors (down 1.5%).

Among individual stocks, HPCL shed nearly 4% to Rs 557 after the state run oil marketing company reported a 52.73% increase in its net profit to Rs 1,590 crore in the December quarter as compared to Rs 1,041 crore in the corresponding period last year.

Among gainers, GVK Power & Infrastructure rose over 16% to hit its 52-week high of Rs 7.70 on news reports that the company has been finalised by Maharashtra's CIDCO to construct the upcoming Rs 16,000 crore Navi Mumbai International Airport, a greenfield project situated on the mainland.

MMTC gained over 7% to Rs 67 after the state-run trading firm  reported a net profit of Rs 74 crore in the December quarter, much higher than the Rs 19.89 crore a year ago, on account of higher income.

Earnings today

Over 950 firms such as Sun Pharma, DLF, Jindal Steel & Power, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, IVRCL and SpiceJet are scheduled to report their quarterly earnings today.

CPI falls to lowest in 2 years

The Consumer Price Index-(CPI) based inflation for the month of January 2017 plunged to 3.17%, the lowest in at least two years, primarily due to a marginal increase in food prices. The retail inflation was 3.41% in December and 5.69% in January last year.

Global markets

Asian shares inched to 19-month highs. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%, trying for its fifth straight session of gains.

Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1% as it struggled with stiff chart resistance that has held since mid-December.

Stocks in Shanghai were barely changed, but Australia managed a 0.4% gain.

Wall Street indexes had hit historic peaks on Monday, with the benchmark S&P 500's market value topping $20 trillion as investors bet tax cuts promised by President Donald Trump would boost the economy.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

SA scores with foreign investment

 South Africa continued to be one of the biggest recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2016, despite global economic growth remaining weak, according to two reports.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) said on Thursday global flows of FDI fell 13 percent in 2016 to an estimated $1.52 trillion (R20.46 trillion) as global economic growth remained weak and world trade volumes posted remained anaemic.

However, Unctad said that South Africa had seen a 38 percent increase in FDI inflows, though this had remained at a relatively low level of $2.4 billion.

“FDI recovery continues along a bumpy road.

“Particularly of concern is the sharp drop-off in manufacturing investment projects, which play such an important role in generating badly needed productivity improvements in developing economies,” Unctad secretary-general Mukhisa Kituyi said.

The UN organ said FDI flows to Africa also registered a decline (5 percent to $51 billion), with the region sharing similar external vulnerabilities with Latin America.

The low level of commodity prices continues to have an impact on resource-seeking FDI.

It said flows to Angola more than halved after surging in 2015. Mozambique saw its FDI fall 11 percent, but the level was still significant at an estimated $ billion.

Uptick

However, there was some uptick in flows to parts of Africa, centred on traditional FDI recipients such as Egypt (from $6.9bn to $7.5bn) and Nigeria (from $3.1 billion to $4 billion).

In another development, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said the January EM (emerging market) portfolio inflows reached a 5-month high.

The agency said net non-resident portfolio inflows were estimated to have been $12.3 billion in January, with equity markets ($7.7 billion) attracting more capital than debt markets ($4.6 billion).

“FDI recovery continues along a bumpy road.

“Particularly of concern is the sharp drop-off in manufacturing investment projects, which play such an important role in generating badly needed productivity improvements in developing economies,” Kituyi said.

“Looking ahead, economic fundamentals point to a potential increase in FDI flows by around 10 percent in 2017,” he said.

“However, significant uncertainties about the shape of future economic policy developments could hamper FDI in the short-term.”

Inflows

The IIF said net non-resident portfolio inflows were estimated at $12.3 billion in January, with equity markets ($7.7bn) attracting more capital than debt markets ($4.6 billion).

The IIF said this compared with outflows of $14.2 billion in January 2016. Non-resident portfolio inflows are estimated to have been $12.3 billion in January, with equity markets ($7.7 billion) attracting more capital than debt markets ($4.6 billion).

Impact

Unctad said the low level of commodity prices continued to have an impact on resource-seeking FDI.

Flows to Angola more than halved after surging in 2015. Mozambique saw its FDI fall 11 percent, but the level was still significant at an estimated $ 3 billion.

However, there was some uptick in flows to parts of Africa centred in countries like Nigeria and Egypt.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold marks first gain in 5 sessions as Dow sinks below 20,000

Gold futures settled with a achieve on Monday for the primary time in 5 buying and selling classes, as signs of rising inflation and a steep decline in U.S. equities helped to lift investment demand in the treasured metal.

traders also are bracing for every week filled with economic data and a two-day assembly of the Federal Reserve to achieve recommendations on the place prices for the metallic may head next.

A intently watched reading on the labor market is due on Friday and a two-day assembly of the Fed is set to kick off Tuesday. both key occasions, amongst others, could alter expectations for passion-price will increase and power the greenback and belongings pegged to it like gold.

On Monday, April gold GCJ7, +0.57% essentially the most lively futures contract, rose $4.90, or zero.four%, to settle at $1,196 an oz. The contract lost roughly 1.4% last week as potential within the buck and recent all-time highs in main U.S. stock indexes dulled demand for haven investments.

March silver SIH7, +zero.28% edged up by way of 1.6 cents, or just below 0.1%, to $17.152 an oz..

A studying of U.S. consumer inflation, as measured by way of the Fed’s preferred metric, non-public-consumption costs, rose in December to the strongest studying in more than two years, in keeping with information launched early Monday. The PCE rose 0.2% in December and the overall annual price rose to 1.6%, marking the highest fee considering the fact that September 2014. consumer spending additionally rose 0.5%

within the month, matching Wall street estimates and representing the largest spending elevate in Decembe

strikes for the buck and gold come as Trump has introduced controversial executive orders that intention to restrict immigrants from seven nations—Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Syria and Libya—coming into the U.S. Uncertainty about the implications of the restrictions and confusion about their implementation additionally have been being factored into funding selections.

On the bullish aspect for gold, the “buck will doubtless continue to weaken provided that the foreign money markets are still in the process of discounting a reasonably bumpy begin to Donald Trump’s presidency, which by way of all accounts, presentations little sign of stabilizing,” said Edward Meir, independent commodity guide at INTL FCStone, in a weekend be aware.

other metals traded on Comex ended on a blended word. March copperHGH7, +zero.40%  fell 3.5 cents, or 1.three%, to $2.655 a pound. April platinumPLJ7, +zero.17%  finished at $993.50 an oz, up $10.20, or 1%, whereas March palladium PAH7, +1.forty one%  fell 15 cents to $738.45 an oz.

In exchange-traded cash, the iShares Silver trust SLV, +zero.06% edged down with the aid of 0.1%, whereas the gold-centered SPDR Gold trust GLD, +0.42% was up about 0.three%, and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, -0.30% shed 0.2%

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold slumps to 2-week low, sheds Rs 400 on global cues

Falling for the 2nd day, gold lost its sheen with the aid of plunging any other Rs 400 to change at two-week low of Rs 29,150 per 10 grams on Friday, monitoring a weak development in a foreign country.

moreover, reduced offtake via jewellers due to slackened demand at the home spot market at prevailing level too hit sentiment.

Silver cracked below the Rs forty one,000-mark via tumbling Rs 550 to Rs 40,950 per kg on terrible offtake by means of industrial units and coin makers.

merchants said sentiment was once downbeat, mostly in sync with a susceptible development in a foreign country. A rally in america stock markets that noticed Dow Jones crossing 20,000 the previous day for the primary time, along with more desirable American foreign money and Treasury yields, hit the dear metals' secure haven enchantment.

Globally, gold value fell 0.37 per cent to $1,183.90 an ounce, and silver with the aid of 0.27 per cent to $16.70 per ounce in Singapore.

within the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and ninety nine.5 per cent purity recorded a steep fall of Rs four hundred each and every to Rs 29,one hundred fifty and Rs 29,000 per 10 grams, 

respectively — a level closing seen on January 12 when it had closed at Rs 29,250. the dear metallic had lost Rs 175 on Wednesday.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Trading Scope: ADX and CCI Review for Horizons Betapro Comex Gold Bull Plus (HBU.TO)

buyers have taken notice of Horizons Betapro Comex Gold Bull Plus (HBU.TO) shares. They is also maintaining a detailed watch on sure stock ranges. a popular indicator among technical analysts that may help to measure the power of market momentum is the typical Directional Index or ADX. The ADX was created by using J. Welles Wilder to assist determine how robust a development is. generally, a rising ADX line means that an existing trend is gaining energy. the opposite often is the case for a falling ADX line. on the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Horizons Betapro Comex Gold Bull Plus (HBU.TO) is standing at 21.91. Many chart analysts imagine that an ADX reading over 25 would counsel a strong pattern. A reading under 20 would recommend no development, and a studying from 20-25 would counsel that there's no clear development signal.
every other technical indicator to examine is the Williams p.c vary or Williams %R. Developed through Larry Williams, this indicator helps spot overbought and oversold market prerequisites. The Williams %R presentations how the current closing worth compares to previous highs/lows over a specified period. Horizons Betapro Comex Gold Bull Plus (HBU.TO)’s Williams p.c vary or 14 day Williams %R is sitting at -43.86. typically, if the value heads above -20, the stock may be regarded as to be overbought. On the flip side, if the indicator goes beneath -80, this will sign that the inventory is oversold.
The RSI, or Relative potential Index, is a recurrently used technical momentum indicator that compares price movement over time. The RSI was once created through J. Welles Wilder who was striving to measure whether or not or no longer a inventory was once overbought or oversold. The RSI is also helpful for spotting abnormal worth job and volatility. The RSI oscillates on a scale from 0 to one hundred. the traditional studying of a stock will fall in the range of 30 to 70. A reading over 70 would point out that the stock is overbought, and possibly overrated. A reading below 30 may point out that the stock is oversold, and possibly undervalued. After a latest test, the 14-day RSI is presently at fifty four.forty five, the 7-day stands at 50.89, and the three-day is sitting at 30.33.
looking at every other technical stage, Horizons Betapro Comex Gold Bull Plus (HBU.TO) right now has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -7.84. normally, the CCI oscillates above and under a zero line. customary oscillations have a tendency to remain in the vary of -100 to +one hundred. A CCI reading of +one hundred could symbolize overbought conditions, whereas readings close to -one hundred could point out oversold territory. even though the CCI indicator was once developed for commodities, it has develop into a popular software for equity evaluation as well.
shifting reasonable indications are used broadly for stock diagnosis. Many merchants will use a mix of transferring averages with different time frames to assist review inventory trend course. probably the most extra popular combinations is to make use of the 50-day and 200-day shifting averages. traders may use the 200-day MA to lend a hand easy out the information a get a clearer lengthy-term picture. they will seem to be to the 50-day or 20-day to get a greater take hold of of what's going on with the inventory in the close to-term. presently, the 200-day shifting average is at 9 and the 50-day is 7.58.
VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold regains glitter on global cues, jewellers' buying

After falling for two straight days, gold regained its glitter with costs rising by means of Rs 140 to Rs 29,715 for 10 grams at the bullion market nowadays, generally driven by means of agency pattern overseas amid pick-up in shopping for by using jewellers at the domestic spot market.

Silver also advanced via Rs one hundred to Rs 41,800 per kg on increased offtake by using industrial gadgets and coin makers.

Bullion traders attributed the recovery in gold costs to a firm trend overseas because the weak spot in greenback boosted demand for the dear metals as a secure-haven.

Globally, gold rose by means of zero.50 per cent to USD 1,215.84 an ounce and silver by means of 0.12 per cent to USD 17.08 an oz. in Singapore.

as well as, elevated shopping for with the aid of local jewellers to fulfill ongoing wedding ceremony season demand, fuelled the uptrend, they stated.

in the nationwide capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity rebounded via Rs one hundred forty each to Rs 29,715 and Rs 29,565 per 10 grams, respectively. It had lost Rs 125 within the earlier two days.

Sovereign, alternatively, held consistent at Rs 24,300 per piece of eight grams.

monitoring gold, silver prepared rose via Rs one hundred to Rs forty one,800 per kg and weekly-based delivery by using Rs 230 to Rs forty one,655 per kg.

Silver coins, then again, maintained steady at Rs seventy two,000 for purchasing and Rs 73,000 for promoting of a hundred items.
VISIT - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

MCX's standalone Q3 net profit up 94%

Commodity exchange Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) on Friday reported an exponential rise of 94 per cent in its standalone net profit for the third quarter of 2016-17.

The company informed the BSE that its net profit for the quarter ended December 31, 2016, rose to Rs 33.94 crore from Rs 17.51 crore for the corresponding quarter ended December 31, 2015.

"Our robust results for the 3rd quarter demonstrate the resilience and diversification inherent in our business," Mrugank Paranjape, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of MCX was quoted as saying in a statement.

"We have also used this period to invest more in preparing for the upcoming year - in terms of intensified efforts around education and training, something which will help us with imminent product launches including options but in the long term as well, with increased participation in the market".

The commodity exchange's standalone total income during the quarter ended December 31, 2016, increased by 20 per cent to Rs 68.60 crore from Rs 56.96 crore for the corresponding period of last fiscal.

The company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the quarter under review rose by 25 per cent to Rs 50.43 crore.

VISIT - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

Russia shares lower at close of trade; MICEX down 0.30%

Russia equities were lower at the close on Thursday, as losses in the Manufacturing, Mining and Oil & Gas sectors propelled shares lower.

At the close in Moscow, the MICEX fell 0.30%.

The biggest gainers of the session on the MICEX were Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT), which rose 7.40% or 10.88 points to trade at 157.91 at the close. ALROSA ao (MCX:ALRS) added 5.76% or 5.550 points to end at 101.950 and AK Transneft OAO Pref (MCX:TRNF_p) was up 4.94% or 10400 points to 221000 in late trade.

Biggest losers included MMC Norilsk Nickel (MCX:GMKN), which lost 4.26% or 445.0 points to trade at 9994.0 in late trade. Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) declined 2.78% or 94.5 points to end at 3300.0 and Yandex NV (MCX:YNDX) shed 2.12% or 27.50 points to 1271.50.

Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 107 to 106 and 28 ended unchanged on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MICEX options, was down 3.85% to 22.730.

In commodities trading, Gold for February delivery was up 0.36% or 4.35 to $1200.95 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, Crude oil for delivery in February rose 1.70% or 0.89 to hit $53.14 a barrel, while the March Brent oil contract rose 1.94% or 1.07 to trade at $56.17 a barrel.

USD/RUB was down 0.70% to 59.3065, while EUR/RUB fell 0.10% to 63.228.

The US Dollar Index was down 0.68% at 101.01.

VISIT - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

Funds betting the worst is over for base metals prices

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of prices touched 2,049 in January 2016, its lowest reading since the dark days of January 2009, when the world seemed to be spiraling into full-blown depression.China came to the rescue then and it came to the rescue again last year, Beijing policymakers once again pumping money down the twin metals-intensive channels of infrastructure and construction to reinvigorate economic growth.

The LME index has since recovered to 2,768. True, performance has been mixed, largely reflecting each individual metal’s supply dynamics.But the worst seems to be over for base metals prices, with more upside to come. That, at least, is what fund managers are betting on.

There was some marginal reduction in fund positions over the course of December but the money men appear to be largely keeping the faith with the broader turnaround story.

Copper has long been the hedge funds’ favorite base metal to the point that somewhere in the mists of time someone awarded it an honorary doctorate for what it can supposedly say about the state of global manufacturing.Five years of falling prices, however, saw “Dr Copper” fall out of favor.

All that changed in November last year, when the copper price broke up out of its previous trading range in spectacular style.Fund money poured into the market, feeding on and accelerating the upwards momentum.

Net fund long positioning on the LME and the COMEX contract in the United States rocketed to previously unknown heights.And although some of that froth has been blown off over the last couple of weeks, net money manager positioning at 70,547 contracts on COMEX and 68,938 contracts on the LME is still at unprecedented levels.

Taking the COMEX contract as an example because the U.S. Commitments of Traders Report (COTR) has a much longer history, the previous high for net fund commitment on the long side was 48,994 contracts, a peak seen in July 2014.Particularly telling, moreover, is a comparison with 2009, a year of dramatic bust to boom. Funds bought into copper’s rally from a December 2008 low of $2,817 to a December 2009 high of $7,167 but the collective net long peaked just shy of 30,000 contracts.

The inference is that the amount of money available for investment in the copper market has increased exponentially over the same period.Judging by the greater volatility of positioning in recent years, that money has become a lot more active in terms of switching between long and short positioning as well.

The more statistically curious might want to draw a comparison in the graphic above between the COMEX and LME positioning reports.The two use the same methodology. Indeed, the LME based its own Commitments of Traders Report, launched in July 2014, on the U.S. template.

But the LME report seems to be weighted towards the long side given how infrequently net positioning has fallen into short territory.That should serve as a caveat when considering fund positioning in the other base metals because the LME’s report is all we have.
Visit - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Commodity Stocks With Buy Signals (CNX, BBL)

These three commodity-related stocks have soared in the last year. They are moving higher within well-defined trend channels, which provide some potential trade areas. Near the bottom of the channel (support) is where buying should be considered, while near the top of the channel (resistance) is where to look for an exit. Trading is not quite that simple, though. Ideally, traders will want to see if the market stalls or bounces near the bottom of the channel, and then use that to determine the exact entry. The three charts below provide an example of this approach.

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) has been trending higher since the start of 2016 and is moving within a rising channel (the most recent one) since May. Channel support is near $17.75. The price fell to $17.02 briefly on Jan. 3, but then quickly rebounded indicating there are buyers stepping up in that region. Buy near $18 with a stop loss below $17. The upside target is $22.75. This target is near the top of the channel and is in alignment with the size of the rallies that have been occurring over the last several months.

BHP Billiton plc (BBL) has also been rising all year. Based on the rising channel, support is expected between $31 and $30. On Dec. 23 the price declined to $31 and has since bounced back above $32. Therefore, $31 has so far provided support in the area expected. Buy below $31.70 (will require a bit of a pullback from the Jan. 6 close of $32.68). While $31 has triggered a bounce, a decline into the $30 area is still possible. By entering between $31.70 and $30, a stop loss can be placed below $29. Alternatively, a trade can be taken near $31.70 with a stop loss below $31. If the price falls below $31, the trade is exited for a small loss, and if the price stabilizes around $30, then another entry can be taken. Exit long trades near the target of $36.75.

Conocho Resources Inc. (CXO) bottomed at $69.94 in January 2016 and hit a high of $147.55 in December. That high was just below the multi-year high of $148.61 (which could be at least a short-term resistance area over the next several months). The most recent trend channel, which extends back to July, indicates support between $130 and $128. The stock closed at $135.60 on Jan. 6, so the price will need to decline a bit further before reaching this support area. If the price consolidates (moves sideways for at least a few days) in the support area, and then moves back above the consolidation high, that is a buy signal (assuming the buy signal occurs near the $130 mark). A stop loss can be placed below the consolidation low. Exit long positions between $148.50 and $149. This is the top of the channel and also respects the high from 2014 which could act as a resistance area.

The Bottom Line

These commodity stocks are rising in well-defined trend channels. The trendlines are not trade signals; rather they simply indicate areas to watch. If the price does indeed bounce or consolidate at these levels, then there is a potential buying opportunity because the price is confirming that buyers are stepping up in that region. Place a stop loss below the recent swing low (or consolidation low), and look to exit near the top of the channel. These channels have been in play for most of 2016 and are providing yet another buy signal. Only risk a small percentage of account capital on any single trade, as the price can reverse lower at any time (For further reading, see: Optimal Position Size Reduces Risk).

Visit - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/services/comex-professional.php

MCX aluminium: traders can stay out of the market

The aluminium futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) continues to remain range-bound and mixed for the fourth consecutive week.

The sideways consolidation in the range between ₹115 and ₹119 per kg remains intact.

The contract is currently hovering around the lower end of this range at ₹115.25.

Whether the contract manages to sustain above ₹115 or breaks below it will decide the next leg of move.

Traders can stay out of the market and wait for a clear trend to emerge for taking trade positions.

A bounce in the coming sessions will see the contract retaining its ₹115-₹119 range for some more time. In such a scenario a rise to ₹119 is possible in the coming days.

If the contract manages to break the range above ₹119, the up move can extend to ₹122 and ₹123. Only a strong break and a decisive close above ₹123 will bring fresh bullish momentum in the contract.

On the other hand, if the contract fails to sustain above ₹115/kg and breaks below this support, a fall to ₹114 or even ₹113 is possible.

The region below ₹114 and ₹113 is a key support zone which may limit the downside in the short term.

But a strong break below ₹113 will bring renewed pressure on the contract. Such a break can drag the contract lower to ₹110 or ₹109.

VISIT - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

Pick up in market volumes likely to continue; industry broking income expected to grow by 12-15% in FY 2017: ICRA

Currency trading volumes of brokerage houses have, nevertheless, grown significantly in the last 12 quarters. In the period between Q1 FY17 and Q1 FY15, volumes grew at a CAGR of 48%.
Following a lukewarm FY16 partly on account of a challenging operating environment, impact due to the increase in minimum contract size for option trading and the withdrawal of liquidity enhancement schemes that were introduced earlier, H1 FY17 saw aggregate equity market volumes recover by 14% and ADTO increase by 15%.

ADTO in H1 FY17 was higher at Rs 3.6 trillion when compared with Rs 3 trillion in FY16 and Rs 3.3 trillion in FY15. Both the decline in market volumes in FY16 as well as their improvement in H1 FY17 was led by the derivatives segment which witnessed a 9% decline in FY16 and a 14% YoY growth in H1 FY17. With the volume growth in cash and derivatives segments remaining similar, the proportion of cash and derivatives volumes continued to remain stable and stood at 7:93 during H1 FY17.

Karthik Srinivasan, Senior Vice President, ICRA Limited, said “Though the H1 FY17 performance has been better than H1 FY16, any adverse impact of the recent rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, delayed pick-up in growth and corporate profitability following the demonetisation and global volatilities could partly impact broking volumes during the second half. However increasing activity levels by the DIIs could partly alleviate concerns on reduction of trading volumes. Hence, we estimate equity market volumes growth rate of 12-15% for FY17.”

In H1 FY17, commodity market volumes rose marginally to Rs 36.8 trillion (ADTO of Rs 0.28 trillion) from Rs 34.9 trillion (ADTO of Rs 0.27 trillion) in H1 FY16. Data from exchanges indicate that the mix of volumes across commodities has remained largely stable in the last one year with Bullion contributing the largest share (36% of volumes in H1 FY17) followed by Energy (34%), Base Metal (28%) and Agricultural Commodities (2%).

Currency trading volumes of brokerage houses have, nevertheless, grown significantly in the last 12 quarters. In the period between Q1 FY17 and Q1 FY15, volumes grew at a CAGR of 48%. In Q2 FY17, however, currency trading turnover witnessed a marginal softening to Rs 18.9 trillion from Rs 20.6 trillion in Q2 FY16.

On the back of top-line pressures, both RoE and RoA witnessed softening in FY16. ICRA believes, going forward, the credit profiles of medium and large brokerage houses shall witness greater de-linking from the volatility of the domestic equity markets as they improve revenue diversification and improve usage of cost light business model. Given continued focus on lowering cost structures while expanding reach into underpenetrated regions, ICRA’s near to medium term outlook for the profitability of these brokerage houses remains positive.
VISIT - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

Market Review: Indicator Watch for iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) currently has a 50-day Moving Average of 11.63, the 200-day Moving Average is 12.24, and the 7-day is noted at 10.95.  Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 74.69. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

Let’s do some further technical analysis on the stock. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is 48.28. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

Another technical indicator to examine is the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. Developed by Larry Williams, this indicator helps spot overbought and oversold market conditions. The Williams %R shows how the current closing price compares to previous highs/lows over a specified period. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)’s Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R is sitting at -23.26. Typically, if the value heads above -20, the stock may be considered to be overbought. On the flip side, if the indicator goes under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 45.54, the 7-day is at 63.16, and the 3-day is spotted at 90.47.

The U.S. Prepares To Sell Off Its Oil Reserves

The U.S. Department of Energy could begin to sell off some of its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) as soon as January, the beginning of a multi-year process to shrink the nation’s stockpile of oil. Congress has authorized DOE to sell off $375.4 million worth of oil in its recent budget resolution. The DOE said that such a sale could be held in January 2017.

To be sure, part of the motivation to sell crude is to finance upkeep for the SPR itself. The reserves are held in salt caverns in Louisiana and Texas, setup decades ago in the aftermath of the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973. The SPR system can hold more than 700 million barrels of oil, the largest strategic stockpile in the world. The idea is that the SPR holds 90 days’ worth of oil supplies, which could be released in the event of a global outage. A release has only occurred a handful of times, such as the Persian Gulf War, Hurricane Katrina and the Arab Spring.

Some of the storage systems are rusting and corroding after decades of use. In September, the DOE issued a report to Congress, which came to a dire conclusion about the condition of the reserve. “This equipment today is near, at, or beyond the end of its design life,” the report said. The sale "will allow the Department to take necessary steps to increase the integrity and extend the life” of the reserve, a DOE spokesperson said in December after the budget resolution was passed.

Related: The U.S. Oil Rig Count Hits Its Highest Level Since January

It is hard to overstate the significance of the SPR to U.S. energy policy. In fact, some analysts would argue the U.S. does not really have a comprehensive energy security policy. There is no coherent theory, policy or philosophy driving U.S. energy security concerns, other than the U.S. military policing the world to ensure the security of supply, a mission that has governed American actions abroad since the Carter administration at least.

The one cornerstone of energy security policy has been the SPR. As long as the U.S. had 3 months’ worth of supply, it could weather unexpected disruptions. The International Energy Agency was setup in the 1970s as well, and participating members – in addition to the U.S., the group includes Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand – also have pledged to hold a 90-day supply.

But U.S. policymakers no longer view the SPR is all that important. Even the more hawkish members of Congress have been lulled into a sense of security from the surge in U.S. oil production and the resulting crash in oil prices. The world is awash in oil, so why does the U.S. need to stockpile such a massive volume of oil at great expense? The ostensible reason of selling off oil from the SPR is to finance its maintenance to ensure its existence over the long-term, but if the Congress still truly believed in the importance of the SPR, they would have found funding elsewhere instead of reducing the stockpile.

Indeed, some of the proceeds from the sale of oil will go towards other uses beyond paying for repairs, namely, the U.S. treasury, which belies the notion that the sales are simply for upkeep. The sales are only occurring because U.S. policymakers are no longer concerned about the security of oil supply for the U.S. economy.

Various pieces of legislation have put the U.S. on a path to sell off 190 million barrels of oil from the stockpile gradually over the next decade. The sales are slated to take in $2 billion by 2020 to finance maintenance.

Beyond the question about the SPR’s relevance to U.S. energy security, a few other issues come to mind. First, the sale of oil from the SPR will occur at a moment of unusually low oil prices. The government could have taken twice as much revenue if it had sold the oil a few years ago instead of today when WTI trades for $50 per barrel. In the event that the U.S. decides to replenish the stockpile at some future moment, it will probably do so in a higher price environment. Selling low and buying high, any investor will tell you, is not a wise strategy.

A more immediate question is how the SPR sales will affect global supplies today. The release of oil will occur in already oversupplied market, and while the volumes are not huge, they will add pressure to prices. "Given stretched bullish positioning and the toppy state of inventories at Cushing, the sales of SPR oil could temporarily curb incentives for barrels in Cushing to flow to the U.S. Gulf Coast," Barclays analysts recently said. The oil could reach the market in March or April, just "as refineries exit their turnabouts, but that could still steepen the WTI contango," the Barclays analysts added.

 visit  - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – December 22, 2016 Forecast

The weaker U.S. Dollar is helping to underpin February Comex Gold futures on Wednesday. Low volume is helping to keep down the volatility, however. This makes the market susceptible to volatility spikes. Gains may be limited by rising equity prices and Treasury yields.

The sideways trade the last four days suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Today is also a major cycle day for gold that is often accompanied by strong upside action.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through the last main top at $1190.20. A trade through $1124.30 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is $1146.00 to $1124.30. Its 50% level or pivot at $1135.20 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Gold is straddling this price today.

The main range is $1190.20 to $1124.30. If there is a breakout to the upside then $1157.30 will become the primary upside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1136.60, the direction of the gold market today will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $1135.20.

A sustained move over $1135.20 will signal the presence of buyers. This could fuel a quick rally into a pair of downtrending angles at $1140.10 and $1142.20.

The angle at $1142.20 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1157.30 the next major upside target.

A sustained move under $1135.20 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next target is last week’s low at $1124.30, followed by a long-term uptrending angle at $1118.70

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1135.20 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buying is getting stronger, or if the sellers are still in control.

Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php