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WILL COMMODITY PRICES GO UP OR DOWN IN 2018?

Investment bank Goldman Sachs same agricultural arte-fact costs square measure heading in the right direction for a fourth year of decline, with corn costs at the tip of 2018 running 33¢ a bushel below the present futures value for December 2018 delivery, same Agri-money. At a similar time, Dutch bank ABN Amro forecast a “more positive” year ahead, with improved corn, wheat, and soybean costs.

Based in big apple, Goldman Sachs forecast that corn costs can stay “flat at $3.50 a bushel for 3, six, and twelve months,” which soybeans also will keep flat, at $9.80 a bushel. this may set a “new normal” of 2:8 for the soy-to-corn magnitude relation that determines that crop are additional profitable to grow.

For years, the magnitude relation was 2:5. Goldman Sachs same, because the international economy grows, soybeans are in higher demand than corn. The bank foreseen associate improvement in cotton costs however “moderately bearish” eutherian costs.

ABN Amro same 2018 crops are smaller than the bumper harvests of 2017 and “grains can have the benefit of continued sturdy demand from the feed business in China.”

The Dutch bank forecast Chicago wheat costs of $5 a bushel a year from currently, with corn at $4 a bushel, and soybeans at $10.50 a bushel. All 3 estimates were on top of December 2018 futures costs, same Agri-money.

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US crude oil futures sell at $49.09/BBL. Down -0.14%

Market continues to await impact of Irma

The rock oil futures settled down these days. The low to high commerce vary was $0.70 cents. The low reached $48.63. The high $49.33. the value settled somewhat close to the center at $49.09. That was down $0.07 on the day or -0.14%.

The track of Irma has the cyclone moving up Florida (either up the coast or additional inland). It doesn't have the storm heading into the Gulf which might impact the rigs within the Gulf.

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Gold marks highest finish of the month

Gold costs on Friday marked the perfect end of the month and their first weekly rise due to the fact early June, as information on retail sales and inflation stoked issues that the percent of economic growth would possibly not merit lifting U.S. interest rates again in 2017.

lower charges tend to be supportive for gold futures, which don’t supply a yield.

Gold for August delivery GCQ7, +0.88%  rose $10.20, or 0.8%, to settle at $1,227.50 an ounce. That was once the perfect finish because June 30 and the strongest single-session climb seeing that June 6, consistent with FactSet data. prices logged a roughly 1.5% weekly achieve, after posting losses in every of the past 5 weeks, in response to the most-lively contracts.

The surge in gold costs got here after a Friday record on client costs showed that inflation in June came in flat, a sign that consumer prices had hassle sustaining its upward momentum. A weaker-than-expected studying for June’s retail gross sales, which fell 0.2%, additionally signaled weak spot. Economists polled by means of MarketWatch had forecast an 0.1% increase. Market participants mentioned the shortage of spending from U.S. consumers made it troublesome to envision inflation drawing near the Fed’s 2% target.

“The disappointing U.S. retail sales and inflation information has seen the percentages of another charge hike fall below 50% this year,” mentioned Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at forex.com. “This has boosted the attraction of low- and noninterest-bearing assets on a relative foundation, hence the breakdown in [the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen] and breakout in gold.”

the newest financial information is also viewed as providing insufficient reinforce for the Fed to carry interest rates at least all over again in 2017 and shrink its $4.5 trillion steadiness sheet—an act that may additionally serve to lift rates and tighten economic prerequisites.

“if truth be told that the industrial data is coming gentle and [Fed Chairwoman Janet] Yellen has started listening to inflation,” mentioned Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at think Markets UK.

Yellen, in testimony to Congress this week, indicated that the federal-money chargewouldn’t wish to upward thrust considerably to “get a impartial policy stance.”

Fed officers have said they plan on lifting charges at least yet again in 2017 and can begin to unwind its stability sheet.

“the next giant factor for traders is the upcoming ECB meeting and that undoubtedly has a capability to convey any other episode of taper tantrum,” mentioned Aslam. the ecu significant bank will dangle its next monetary policy assembly on July 20 in Frankfurt.

A wide gauge of the U.S. buck, the ICE U.S. dollar Index DXY, -0.68% a measure of the buck towards a 1/2-dozen rivals, was once off 0.6%. Commodities priced in dollars tend to get a boost when the greenback weakens, making those property cheaper to consumers the use of weaker currencies.

In other buying and selling, silver for September SIU7, +1.62%  rose 24.2 cents, or 1.5%, to $15.933 an oz, for a 3.7% weekly achieve.

looking with a much broader lens, Taki Tsaklanos, lead analyst at Investing Haven, stated he’s bearish on silver this 12 months, but sees the means of “as soon as-in-a-decade opportunity in the gold and silver market.”

in the meantime, October platinum PLV7, +1.75% climbed $16.40, or 1.8%, to $923.50 an ounce, for a weekly achieve of 2.5%, while palladium for September PAU7, +0.27% developed $2, or 0.2%, at $856.75 an ounce, and saw a three.1% weekly climb. September copper HGU7, +1.26%  added 3 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.691 a pound. Copper scored a weekly return of 2%.

amongst change-traded cash, the SPDR Gold trust GLD, +0.82%  rose 0.9%, poised for a weekly rise of 1.3%. The iShares Silver trust SLV, +1.41%  rose 1.4% and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, +1.40% used to be up 2.3% in all over Friday’s session.

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Gold prices recover by Rs 250 on global cues

Gold prices rebounded by Rs 250 to Rs 29,350 per 10 grams on the bullion market as of late on firm in another country cues and increased shopping for by way of native jewellers

Silver also recovered with the aid of Rs one hundred fifty to Rs 40,a hundred and fifty per kg backed by elevated offtake through industrial gadgets and coin makers.

Marketmen said a firm development overseas and choose up in shopping for by using native jewellers at home spot markets led to the recovery in gold costs.

Globally, gold rose by means of 0.forty six per cent to $1,268.60 an ounce in ny in the day prior to this's change.

in the national capital, gold of ninety nine.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity bounced back via Rs 250 each to Rs 29,350 and Rs 29,200 per 10 grams, respectively. It had lost Rs 250 in the day gone by's exchange.

Sovereign, on the other hand, remained flat at Rs 24,four hundred per piece of eight grams in scattered deals.

tracking gold, silver ready recovered through Rs one hundred fifty to Rs forty,a hundred and fifty per kg, while weekly-based delivery slumped under the Rs 40,000-mark with the aid of falling Rs eighty to Rs 39,935 per kg because of lack of speculators' buying give a boost to.

on the other hand, silver cash remained unaltered at Rs 72,000 for buying and Rs 73,000 for selling of one hundred items.

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Equities boom takes a toll on MCX as commodity volumes fall

For MCX, India's greatest commodity alternate, a revival in fairness markets has come as a bane. With the shift of native cash against buying and selling shares and buying mutual funds, volumes on MCX have declined with the aid of over 20% on the grounds that November 2016, the month when demonetisation was once introduced.

The alternate was once anticipating an enormous increase to its volumes as soon as the regulator allowed options trading in commodities. however consultants say trading volumes may not shift to commodities until inventory markets saw a significant crash. MCX, which deals buying and selling in both agri and non-agri commodity futures, has over 80% market share.

the common monthly turnover in relation to number of contracts traded on MCX stood at 9.forty eight lakh in November is right down to 7.54 lakh in may. For your entire 2016, selection of contracts traded on an average month-to-month foundation on MCX used to be extra 9.2 lakh with an exception for the month of October 2016 when on a standard 7.sixty three lakh contracts had been traded on MCX.

The selection of contracts traded on an ordinary month-to-month basis in 2017 up to now has no longer been better than 7.fifty four lakh. the average month-to-month turnover on the subject of price is down to round Rs 18,000 crore in could so far compared to Rs 25,000 crore value in November 2016 on MCX.

“it's clear that trading volumes in commodity have shifted to other asset lessons like equities that have seen a sharp appreciation because the starting of 2017," stated Harish Galipelli, head of commodities and currencies, Inditrade Derivatives & Commodities. “The decrease liquidity has further pushed out arbitrageurs from commodity markets and this is usually a pattern until there is dramatic price movement in world commodities.”

There was once a bull run in commodities globally till 2015 as chinese speculators and dollars piled into buying metals, crude and different agri objects growing an arbitrage possibility. but a slowdown is naturally visible now. China, with a specific amount of inevitably has completely stalled its commodity buying spree. trading in each base and treasured metals has taken a beating. Crude futures too will not be attracting higher interest with oil costs refusing to maneuver up sharply on anticipation of a oil market glut in coming years.

the share price of MCX has taken a beating too. It fell 37% from its fifty two-week high of Rs 1,420 to touch a low of Rs 884 on Tuesday. the online revenue of the bourse halved all the way through the March quarter in 2017 to ?22 crore from ?forty four crore logged in the same duration last year.

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Gold price rises about $5

The U.S. Dow Jones stock index descended zero.03% to twenty,951.47 points, S&P 500 increased by using 0.06% to 2,389.52 points and NASDAQ raised by way of zero.05% to six,075.34 points.

in the European inventory markets, FTSE 100 index went up by means of zero.19% to 7,248.10 points, French CAC forty surged 1.35% to 5,372.forty two and Germany’s DAX rose zero.ninety six% to 12,647.seventy eight and.

on the newest COMEX auctions, gold price increased $4.80 to $1,233.40 an ounce, and silver value surged $0.07 to $16.37.

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Gold to trade in 28578-29188: Achiievers Equities

in keeping with Achiievers Equities, Gold eased as investor sentiment continues to be skewed towards riskier property within the wake of the French election outcomes on Sunday.

Achiievers Equities' commodity record on Gold

Gold buying and selling vary for the day is 28578-29188.

Gold eased as investor sentiment is still skewed toward riskier belongings within the wake of the French election outcomes on Sunday.

Goldman Sachs, in a word mentioned it continues to expect gold to come beneath power in the near term on a potential rally in actual interest rates.

Holdings of SPDR Gold belief, the arena's greatest gold-backed alternate-traded fund, fell 0.sixty nine p.c to 854.25 tonnes on Tuesday.

ELL GOLD JUN 2017 @ 28950 SL 29100 TGT 28820-28680.MCX.

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Silver imports decline 60% to 3,000 metric tonnes in 2016

Silver is so ingrained in Indian custom that the u . s . a .’s currency, the rupee, is known as after ‘Rup’, the Sanskrit phrase for silver

Silver imports with the aid of India, one of the crucial world’s top patrons, will most definitely decrease this 12 months to the lowest due to the fact that 2012 as the federal government cracks down on black money, farmers battle for money and stockpiles remain abundant.

Purchases from out of the country plunged 60% to about three,000 metric tonnes final 12 months and can contract further in 2017, according to Chirag Sheth, an analyst at Metals focus Ltd., an impartial precious-metals research agency, in Mumbai.

Demand for jewellery has suffered after top Minister Narendra Modi scrapped outdated excessive-denomination notes in November to clamp down on the black market and bring extra transparency to the monetary device.

That hit the agricultural economic system which relies extra on cash than city areas, and hurt demand from farmers. Inventories are “full-size” after report imports in 2015, Sheth said.

“funding demand for silver will proceed to fare badly and we wouldn’t be shocked to peer a ten -12% drop” this 12 months in India, said Sheth, who’s tracked treasured metals for 13 years. On the global market, investors have shown rising passion on account of rising political chance. property in change-traded funds rose in February for the primary time in 4 months, while cash and different speculators almost doubled internet-long bets on the Comex this year.

whereas prices have been rising, they’re means beneath the peak in 2011 and haven’t even caught up with the highs ultimate yr. Futures in Mumbai have climbed 11% in 2017, however are still about 10% in need of levels in July. “prices have no longer been in a position to sustain at higher ranges and traders who currently cling the metallic will seem to be to e book profits if they go up further,” Sheth mentioned.

Silver is so ingrained in Indian custom that the country’s foreign money, the rupee, is called after ‘Rup’, the Sanskrit phrase for silver.

The steel is widespread in rural areas where it’s seen as the negative man’s gold as a result of it’s many times more cost effective than its fellow metallic and ladies favor to put on it on their toes, conserving gold for arms, neck and ears. Farmers had been discovering it tricky to buy bullion on account of lack of money.

“Silver or gold buying is a forced purchase for us as we now have to ship our daughters to their in-laws home with excellent face,” stated Samarpal Singh, a 50-yr-previous sugar cane farmer from Uttar Pradesh. “We barely have any financial savings as we don’t get timely funds for our plants and many farmers hotel to taking loans from banks for buying jewelry for his or her youngsters’s weddings.”

India imports most of its silver, from locations together with the united kingdom, mainland China and Hong Kong. in the community, Hindustan Zinc Ltd. produces about 400 tonnes annually.

“in the remaining six months, the silver market has turn into very quiet and there are rarely any sales,” stated Suresh Hundia, proprietor of Hundia Exports Ltd. and a former president of the India Bullion and Jewellers association. “Jewelers have enough supplies and a few of them are even the use of their shares to trade on the futures alternate because of lack of physical consumers.

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Metals prices consolidate after Friday's rebound

The base metals are for probably the most section on a again footing this morning, Monday February 27, with costs off an average of 0.2% - nickel and tin are the 2 metals bucking the trend with tin prices rising zero.8% and nickel prices up 0.four%, while the remainder are weaker.                          

Zinc costs lead on the draw back with a 1% fall, lead costs are off zero.9%, copper prices are down zero.4% at $5,891 per tonne and aluminium costs are off 0.2%. volume on the London steel trade has been mild with 5,754 rather a lot traded as of 07:14 GMT. This normally weaker tone comes after a day of rebound on Friday, when the base metals closed up with average features of 1.6%.

the dear metals are little modified-to-less assailable this morning, spot gold costs are down 0.1% at $1,256.96 per oz, silver prices are up 0.1% while platinum and palladium costs are up 0.2% and 0.three%, respectively. This follows an improved day on Friday, when prices closed up an average of zero.eight%, led via a 1.eight% rise in platinum prices.

In Shanghai this morning, the Shanghai Futures trade complex is cut up, nickel and tin are up strongly with gains of 2.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while the rest are decrease with 0.1% losses in copper (forty seven,690 yuan per tonne) and aluminium, zinc is down 0.2% and lead is off 0.6%.

Spot copper in Changjiang is up 1.2% at 47,seven hundred-47,900 yuan per tonne – the disparity between spot and the futures highlights that copper costs opened on an improved word this morning, however have considering that weakened, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09.

In different metals in China, may just iron ore costs on the Dalian Commodity trade have rebounded with beneficial properties of three.2%, on the SHFE, steel rebar is up 4.1%, silver prices are up 1.5% and gold costs are up zero.eight%. In world markets, Brent crude oil costs are up zero.9% at $fifty six.44 per barrel, while German 2-12 months bond yields have fallen to contemporary lows.

Equities on Friday noticed the Euro Stoxx 50 close down 0.9%, while the Dow closed up 0.1%, but Asia is poor this morning with the Nikkei off 0.9%, the hang Seng is off zero.2%, the CSI 300 is off zero.8%, the ASX200 is off 0.3% and the Kospi is off zero.four%.

In FX, the greenback index attempted to rebound on Friday but early apply-via potential this morning is waning, the greenback index was once lately quoted at a hundred and one.10. The euro is consolidating at 1.0575, as is the Australian buck at zero.7690, the yen is less assailable at 112.23, whereas the sterling is weaker at 1.2420 as there are fears that the Scottish government may call some other independence referendum. In emerging market currencies, the yuan is weaker at 6.8734 and across the opposite currencies we practice, most are consolidating having proven some power in latest days.

On the industrial agenda there is information on Spanish CPI, eu M3 cash provide and personal loans, whereas US information includes sturdy items orders, pending residence gross sales and US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is talking. In Japan, later this evening there's information out on preliminary industrial production and retail sales – see table under for more small print.

the base metals have proven some hesitation of their capability to extend gains in up to date weeks, however as was viewed at the end of closing week, price dips did attract shopping for so the important thing will now be whether or not there's practice-through shopping for. With US president Donald Trump chatting with the usa Congress on Tuesday the market is bracing for additional details on his plans on tax reforms, which may set the subsequent direction for sentiment and therefore prices. also later within the week, there will be the chinese manufacturing PMI. So in the short time period we might look for extra consolidation, perhaps with a weaker bias, even if nickel and tin may alternate their very own fundamentals more.

Gold prices did prolong greater remaining week which displays a strong uptrend and suggests traders are nonetheless diversifying their portfolios to increase their haven holdings. With US president Donald Trump and Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking this week, worth motion might grow to be uneven.

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Sebi chief UK Sinha says commodity market needs more legal clarity

Sebi chief U. ok. Sinha says low participation of producers and hedgers is the principle subject for the capital market regulator

Securities and trade Board of India (Sebi) chairman U.okay. Sinha on Friday stated that low participation of producers and hedgers is the primary subject for the market regulator, while launch of recent products similar to choices will need amendments in the Securities Contracts laws Act, or SCRA.

    Sinha, whose time period as the Sebi chief is ending on 1 March, mentioned the principle center of attention of the capital market regulator has been possibility-free integration with the ahead Markets commission, the erstwhile commodity market regulator.

“the combination wants extra felony clarity,” mentioned Sinha at the global commodity derivatives convention, 2017, geared up by means of Sebi.

so as to reinforce liquidity in the commodity derivatives market, Sebi is making efforts to attract extra contributors corresponding to foreign portfolio buyers (FPIs) and mutual cash, Sinha stated.

“there may be lack of transparency and effective worth discovery in commodities,” he mentioned.

Sinha delivered that there was need for a transparent legal provisions for spot markets as neatly. “Our spot market can be extremely fragmented,” said Sinha.

On 20 January, the market regulator had floated a discussion paper inviting comments on the way to settle and worth commodity options product, lack of which used to be making it tough for exchanges to launch this product.

For this, the regulator had proposed amendments to stock Exchanges and Clearing firms rules to allow options which have commodity futures as underlying.

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Gold rallies to 12-week high on bets for less aggressive Fed

Gold prices received in European morning alternate on Monday, rising toward the best stage in about 12 weeks as traders scaled back expectations for a extra aggressive p.c. of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this yr.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the new York Mercantile alternate rose to a session peak of $1,227.00 a troy ounce, essentially the most in view that November sixteen.

It was last at $1,225.forty five by way of three:15AM ET (08:15GMT), up $4.fifty five, or round zero.four%.

costs of the yellow metal climbed 2.4% remaining week, its very best weekly acquire in seven months.

the latest U.S. employment file confirmed that jobs growth beat expectations, however wage increase remained tepid, with the intention to likely suggested the Fed to undertake a extra cautious means on elevating rates of interest this year.

The U.S. economy delivered 227,000 jobs in January from the prior month, the Labor division stated Friday, whereas the unemployment charge ticked up to four.eight% from 4.7% in December, as extra americans joined the group of workers.

but reasonable hourly earnings rose just zero.1% in January from a year prior, under expectations for a 0.3% rise and slowing from 0.2% in December. The small gain lowered the yr-on-12 months elevate in salary to 2.5% from 2.eight% in December.

The susceptible wage growth used to be considered as weakening the case for near-time period interest rate hikes.

Fed fund futures priced in a not up to 10% probability of a charge hike in March after the roles information on Friday, in line with Investing.com’s Fed charge screen device. Odds of a June increase was seen at more than 60%.

The Fed, which raised charges in December, has forecast three charge will increase this 12 months. on the other hand, merchants remained unconvinced, with markets continuing to value in simply two rate hikes right through the route of this yr.

The U.S. buck index, which measures the dollar’s potential towards a alternate-weighted basket of six main currencies, was at ninety nine.eighty five in early European trade, now not far from closing week's two-month low of ninety nine.19.

The greenback has been beneath power amid growing subject concerning the doable affect of the Trump Administration’s protectionist stance.

Headlines from Washington will proceed to dictate market sentiment as merchants center of attention on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation in addition to exchange insurance policies.

additionally on the Comex, silver futures for March supply jumped 9.9 cents, or zero.6%, to $17.57 a troy ounce.

in the meantime, platinum tacked on zero.4% to $1,010.40, whereas palladium climbed around 1.5% to $759.85 an ounce.

in different places in metals buying and selling, copper futures inched up 1.6 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.632 a pound.

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Oil Prices Headed Higher in 2017

New U.S. drilling received’t be enough to offset declining production from OPEC. price could hit $fifty five to $sixty five this year.

OPEC’s determination to dial back oil manufacturing is pushing crude prices better and breathing new life into the U.S. oil patch.

U.S. crude ended Friday at $53.83 a barrel on the brand new York Mercantile change, up 19% for the reason that contributors of the group of the Petroleum Exporting countries agreed on Nov. 30 to chop their combined output by using 1.2 million barrels a day to make stronger costs, which have roughly doubled up to now year. a favorite of smaller buyers, the u.s.a. Oil Fund trade-traded fund (ticker: USO), is up greater than 14% in that time.

OPEC’s move marked a brand new flip within the price competition between the cartel and U.S. shale producers that for 2 years has stored international crude stockpiles brimming and costs low. U.S. shale drillers have spoke back to rising prices with a flurry of deal-making and drilling geared toward seizing market share as OPEC throttles again. given that OPEC introduced its plan, the collection of rigs drilling within the U.S. has risen 23% to 729. The rig count is up eighty% considering that bottoming in may just.

though the stateside drilling may assist keep costs from rising too fast, many forecasters predict oil prices to continue their ascent. In a recent Wall street Journal survey of 15 funding banks, analysts boosted their price forecasts for the first time in five months, suggesting a typical U.S. crude value of about $fifty five a barrel in 2017. merchants are making a bet heavily on their being right. lengthy positions outnumbered bearish bets closing month by way of the widest margin in the 10 years that the Commodity Futures trading fee has tracked the information.

Bulls consider that rising world demand, giant shortfalls in offshore production, and output savings from OPEC and different exporters, together with Russia, imply the market will quickly face a scarcity of provide.

“We shouldn’t be petrified of the availability that is coming on. These barrels can be wanted down the road to rebalance the market,” says Nick Koutsoftas, portfolio co-supervisor of commodities technique for asset supervisor Cohen & Steers. He expects oil to succeed in $sixty five a barrel through year finish.

Oil companies in the Permian Basin were drilling most aggressively. About 40% of all rigs in the U.S. are drilling in that house of west Texas, and analysts predict the region to stay the business’s center of attention, in line with spending plans via producers and the truth that many companies have made pricey land purchases there that they have to justify by using drilling.

some other vivid spot for U.S.-centered service firms is the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells. The U.S. energy data Administration estimates there are greater than 5,300 wells, waiting to be hydraulically fractured and introduced on-line through firms like Halliburton (HAL) andKeane team (FRAC), which ultimate month listed shares. Bankers and private equity executives are expecting a slew of initial public choices with the aid of oilfield-provider corporations taking a look to lift capital as they ramp up.

although some concern about a flood of Permian oil swamping supplies, many analysts and traders word the declining production in other shale regions, corresponding to North Dakota and south Texas.

Permian increase “gained’t be enough to offset declines” elsewhere, says Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg buddies, an funding firm involved in natural tools. “There’s going to be an enormous provide imbalance for 2017 and 2018, regardless of increased spending and elevated activity.”

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Gold slumps to 2-week low, sheds Rs 400 on global cues

Falling for the 2nd day, gold lost its sheen with the aid of plunging any other Rs 400 to change at two-week low of Rs 29,150 per 10 grams on Friday, monitoring a weak development in a foreign country.

moreover, reduced offtake via jewellers due to slackened demand at the home spot market at prevailing level too hit sentiment.

Silver cracked below the Rs forty one,000-mark via tumbling Rs 550 to Rs 40,950 per kg on terrible offtake by means of industrial units and coin makers.

merchants said sentiment was once downbeat, mostly in sync with a susceptible development in a foreign country. A rally in america stock markets that noticed Dow Jones crossing 20,000 the previous day for the primary time, along with more desirable American foreign money and Treasury yields, hit the dear metals' secure haven enchantment.

Globally, gold value fell 0.37 per cent to $1,183.90 an ounce, and silver with the aid of 0.27 per cent to $16.70 per ounce in Singapore.

within the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and ninety nine.5 per cent purity recorded a steep fall of Rs four hundred each and every to Rs 29,one hundred fifty and Rs 29,000 per 10 grams, 

respectively — a level closing seen on January 12 when it had closed at Rs 29,250. the dear metallic had lost Rs 175 on Wednesday.

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Silver futures down 0.76 pc; hurt by weak global cues

Taking weak cues from overseas markets, silver costs dropped with the aid of 0.seventy six per cent to Rs 41,400 per kg in futures trading lately, as members cut down their bets.
additionally, revenue-booking at prevailing levels with the aid of speculators weighed on silver costs.

on the Multi Commodity change, silver for delivery in March was once trading lower through Rs 318, or 0.76 per cent, to Rs 41,400 per kg, in a industry turnover of 759 a lot.

in a similar way, the white metallic for supply in far-month may just was once down with the aid of Rs 298, or 0.70 per cent, to Rs 42,000 per kg in 21 so much.

merchants said offloading of positions via members because of a weak international development primarily ended in the autumn in silver costs at futures change.
Globally, silver shed zero.26 per cent to USD 17.01 an oz. in Singapore.
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Russia shares lower at close of trade; MICEX down 0.30%

Russia equities were lower at the close on Thursday, as losses in the Manufacturing, Mining and Oil & Gas sectors propelled shares lower.

At the close in Moscow, the MICEX fell 0.30%.

The biggest gainers of the session on the MICEX were Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT), which rose 7.40% or 10.88 points to trade at 157.91 at the close. ALROSA ao (MCX:ALRS) added 5.76% or 5.550 points to end at 101.950 and AK Transneft OAO Pref (MCX:TRNF_p) was up 4.94% or 10400 points to 221000 in late trade.

Biggest losers included MMC Norilsk Nickel (MCX:GMKN), which lost 4.26% or 445.0 points to trade at 9994.0 in late trade. Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) declined 2.78% or 94.5 points to end at 3300.0 and Yandex NV (MCX:YNDX) shed 2.12% or 27.50 points to 1271.50.

Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 107 to 106 and 28 ended unchanged on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MICEX options, was down 3.85% to 22.730.

In commodities trading, Gold for February delivery was up 0.36% or 4.35 to $1200.95 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, Crude oil for delivery in February rose 1.70% or 0.89 to hit $53.14 a barrel, while the March Brent oil contract rose 1.94% or 1.07 to trade at $56.17 a barrel.

USD/RUB was down 0.70% to 59.3065, while EUR/RUB fell 0.10% to 63.228.

The US Dollar Index was down 0.68% at 101.01.

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Funds betting the worst is over for base metals prices

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of prices touched 2,049 in January 2016, its lowest reading since the dark days of January 2009, when the world seemed to be spiraling into full-blown depression.China came to the rescue then and it came to the rescue again last year, Beijing policymakers once again pumping money down the twin metals-intensive channels of infrastructure and construction to reinvigorate economic growth.

The LME index has since recovered to 2,768. True, performance has been mixed, largely reflecting each individual metal’s supply dynamics.But the worst seems to be over for base metals prices, with more upside to come. That, at least, is what fund managers are betting on.

There was some marginal reduction in fund positions over the course of December but the money men appear to be largely keeping the faith with the broader turnaround story.

Copper has long been the hedge funds’ favorite base metal to the point that somewhere in the mists of time someone awarded it an honorary doctorate for what it can supposedly say about the state of global manufacturing.Five years of falling prices, however, saw “Dr Copper” fall out of favor.

All that changed in November last year, when the copper price broke up out of its previous trading range in spectacular style.Fund money poured into the market, feeding on and accelerating the upwards momentum.

Net fund long positioning on the LME and the COMEX contract in the United States rocketed to previously unknown heights.And although some of that froth has been blown off over the last couple of weeks, net money manager positioning at 70,547 contracts on COMEX and 68,938 contracts on the LME is still at unprecedented levels.

Taking the COMEX contract as an example because the U.S. Commitments of Traders Report (COTR) has a much longer history, the previous high for net fund commitment on the long side was 48,994 contracts, a peak seen in July 2014.Particularly telling, moreover, is a comparison with 2009, a year of dramatic bust to boom. Funds bought into copper’s rally from a December 2008 low of $2,817 to a December 2009 high of $7,167 but the collective net long peaked just shy of 30,000 contracts.

The inference is that the amount of money available for investment in the copper market has increased exponentially over the same period.Judging by the greater volatility of positioning in recent years, that money has become a lot more active in terms of switching between long and short positioning as well.

The more statistically curious might want to draw a comparison in the graphic above between the COMEX and LME positioning reports.The two use the same methodology. Indeed, the LME based its own Commitments of Traders Report, launched in July 2014, on the U.S. template.

But the LME report seems to be weighted towards the long side given how infrequently net positioning has fallen into short territory.That should serve as a caveat when considering fund positioning in the other base metals because the LME’s report is all we have.
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