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MCX's standalone Q3 net profit up 94%

Commodity exchange Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) on Friday reported an exponential rise of 94 per cent in its standalone net profit for the third quarter of 2016-17.

The company informed the BSE that its net profit for the quarter ended December 31, 2016, rose to Rs 33.94 crore from Rs 17.51 crore for the corresponding quarter ended December 31, 2015.

"Our robust results for the 3rd quarter demonstrate the resilience and diversification inherent in our business," Mrugank Paranjape, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of MCX was quoted as saying in a statement.

"We have also used this period to invest more in preparing for the upcoming year - in terms of intensified efforts around education and training, something which will help us with imminent product launches including options but in the long term as well, with increased participation in the market".

The commodity exchange's standalone total income during the quarter ended December 31, 2016, increased by 20 per cent to Rs 68.60 crore from Rs 56.96 crore for the corresponding period of last fiscal.

The company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the quarter under review rose by 25 per cent to Rs 50.43 crore.

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Russia shares lower at close of trade; MICEX down 0.30%

Russia equities were lower at the close on Thursday, as losses in the Manufacturing, Mining and Oil & Gas sectors propelled shares lower.

At the close in Moscow, the MICEX fell 0.30%.

The biggest gainers of the session on the MICEX were Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT), which rose 7.40% or 10.88 points to trade at 157.91 at the close. ALROSA ao (MCX:ALRS) added 5.76% or 5.550 points to end at 101.950 and AK Transneft OAO Pref (MCX:TRNF_p) was up 4.94% or 10400 points to 221000 in late trade.

Biggest losers included MMC Norilsk Nickel (MCX:GMKN), which lost 4.26% or 445.0 points to trade at 9994.0 in late trade. Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) declined 2.78% or 94.5 points to end at 3300.0 and Yandex NV (MCX:YNDX) shed 2.12% or 27.50 points to 1271.50.

Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 107 to 106 and 28 ended unchanged on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MICEX options, was down 3.85% to 22.730.

In commodities trading, Gold for February delivery was up 0.36% or 4.35 to $1200.95 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, Crude oil for delivery in February rose 1.70% or 0.89 to hit $53.14 a barrel, while the March Brent oil contract rose 1.94% or 1.07 to trade at $56.17 a barrel.

USD/RUB was down 0.70% to 59.3065, while EUR/RUB fell 0.10% to 63.228.

The US Dollar Index was down 0.68% at 101.01.

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MA Levels in Review for iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG)

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) currently has a 50-day Moving Average of 14.92, the 200-day Moving Average is 14.82, and the 7-day is noted at 15.57.  Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 6.51. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

Let’s do some further technical analysis on the stock. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is 24.48. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

Another technical indicator to examine is the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. Developed by Larry Williams, this indicator helps spot overbought and oversold market conditions. The Williams %R shows how the current closing price compares to previous highs/lows over a specified period. iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG)’s Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R is sitting at -49.25. Typically, if the value heads above -20, the stock may be considered to be overbought. On the flip side, if the indicator goes under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 58.04, the 7-day is at 54.65, and the 3-day is spotted at 48.71.

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MCX aluminium: traders can stay out of the market

The aluminium futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) continues to remain range-bound and mixed for the fourth consecutive week.

The sideways consolidation in the range between ₹115 and ₹119 per kg remains intact.

The contract is currently hovering around the lower end of this range at ₹115.25.

Whether the contract manages to sustain above ₹115 or breaks below it will decide the next leg of move.

Traders can stay out of the market and wait for a clear trend to emerge for taking trade positions.

A bounce in the coming sessions will see the contract retaining its ₹115-₹119 range for some more time. In such a scenario a rise to ₹119 is possible in the coming days.

If the contract manages to break the range above ₹119, the up move can extend to ₹122 and ₹123. Only a strong break and a decisive close above ₹123 will bring fresh bullish momentum in the contract.

On the other hand, if the contract fails to sustain above ₹115/kg and breaks below this support, a fall to ₹114 or even ₹113 is possible.

The region below ₹114 and ₹113 is a key support zone which may limit the downside in the short term.

But a strong break below ₹113 will bring renewed pressure on the contract. Such a break can drag the contract lower to ₹110 or ₹109.

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Silver Prices Rebound Above $17 Ahead of FOMC

Silver prices rose Monday, rebounding from a volatile end to the previous week as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year.March silver futures climbed 25 cents, or 1.5%, to $17.21 a troy ounce at 10:30 am on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have been volatile since hitting a one-month high of $17.28 on December 7. The grey metal held on to gains of roughly 0.8% last week.

Platinum prices shot up Monday, climbing $15.95, or 1.7%, to $931.80 a troy ounce.

Meanwhile, February gold futures ticked up $1.10, or 0.1%, to $1,163.10 a troy ounce.

Precious metals are in for volatility this week as the US Federal Reserve signals for higher interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to vote in favour of a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate, resuming the slow process of policy tightening. Economists in a recent Wall Street Journal survey said they expect interest rates to rise four times next year, with 1.26% being the median estimate for the federal funds rate in December 2017.

The Fed will announce its rate decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. The official statement will be accompanied by quarterly economic projections covering GDP, unemployment and inflation.Investors will closely monitor Wednesday’s rate announcement for specific language that might imply a more aggressive rate hiking path in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. The President-elect supports policies that could stoke faster inflation, which could force the central bank to reevaluate its policy timeline.

The US dollar soared to fresh highs on Friday, but has since given back some of those gains ahead of the central bank meeting. The dollar index fell 0.4% to 101.18.US stocks were trading mixed Monday morning following another record-setting week. The Dow continued to push higher, while the Nasdaq traded in negative territory. The S&P 500 Index was virtually unchanged.

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Sell Comex gold if it rallies to $1,195/ounce

Comex gold futures steadied on Thursday as the dollar retreated slightly from an almost 14-year high. The futures moved as expected. As mentioned in the previous update, a potential target on the downside lies at $1,195-98 per ounce levels and there is also scope for prices to extend lower towards $1,171 levels, if they fail to hold support at $1,195-97 levels.Failure to hold support at $1,197-98 has turned it into a strong resistance level going forward. Resistances are at $1,195-1,200 now, and while resistances cap, we can expect a decline to $1,170-75 in the coming sessions.

We favour strong supports to kick in there, failing which more weakness can be anticipated subsequently. Only a daily close above $1,235 in good volumes could again revive bullish hopes and such a rise will hint that the downward correction has ended and the rally higher above $1,400 levels has begun.In a broader picture, we expect the downside from here to be limited and a recovery to begin after testing important levels mentioned above. But, it could potentially take a while for a sustained recovery to materialise.

Wave counts: It is most likely that the fall from record $1,925 to the recent low of $1,088 so far, was either a possible corrective wave ‘A’, with a possibility to even extend towards $1,025-30 levels or a complete correction of A-B-C ending with this decline. Subsequently, a corrective wave ‘B’ could unfold with targets near $1,375 or even higher. After that, a wave ‘C’ could begin lower again.

Alternatively, we can also expect wave ‘B’ to extend to $1,476 levels. If the current decline as a whole from $1,920 can be considered as a fourth wave, then the fifth wave could begin and cross $1,700 in the long-term.As prices have broken important resistances and shown impulsive tendencies, we will stick with the above count. As mentioned earlier, once prices reach $1,025-45 levels we will look for signs of a reversal.

There are signs of a turnaround, and prices have convincingly risen in volumes and closed above $1,300 levels, which further reaffirms our wave count. RSI is in the oversold zone now, indicating that an upward correction is in the offing. The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator, indicating a bearish reversal. Only a crossover again above zero could hint at a reversal to bullishness.So, sell on rallies to $1,195-1,200 with a stop-loss at $1,216 targeting $1,165-70. Supports are at $1,170, 1,127 and 1,090. Resistances are at $1,200, 1,225 and 1,255

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US crude settles up 27 cents at $45.69, scores first weekly gain in four weeks

Oil prices eked out gains despite a stronger dollar and rising U.S. oil rig count, as hopes that OPEC might agree to limit production cuts at the end of the month boosted sentiment.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said.

Iran has been the main stumbling block for capping production, and while it has not yet responded to the proposal, it suggests OPEC members may be coming nearer to a consensus ahead of their meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30.Prices, however, were depressed by a stronger U.S. dollar, which reached its highest levels against a basket of currencies since 2003 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that a rate increase could happen "relatively soon," indicating higher chances of a hike in December.

A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in the greenback, more expensive to buyers using other currencies.Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported the largest weekly rise in its count of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields since a recovery began at the end of June. The count rose by 19 rigs to 471 in the last week.crude oil futures were down 27 cents at $46.76 per barrel at 2:38 p.m. ET (1938 GMT), but it was still on track for its first weekly increase in five weeks.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled up 27 cents at $45.69 a barrel and posted their first weekly gain in four.OPEC member countries have proposed Iran cap its oil output at 3.92 million barrels per day (bpd) under a production-limiting deal for the whole group, a source familiar with the proposal has told Reuters.While Iran has not yet responded to the proposal, it means OPEC members may be coming nearer to a consensus on how much Iran should produce.Iran has previously sent mixed signals, saying it would accept a freeze at between 4 and 4.2 million bpd.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday after meeting OPEC members he was more confident an output deal could be reached between Moscow and the group to help to boost oil prices.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Thursday he was optimistic about OPEC's deal to limit oil output and mentioned the lower end of a previously agreed production target of 32.5 to 33 million bpd.But analysts said there were still obstacles for the producer group to overcome before it could reach a deal. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on Nov. 30.

"Iranian and Iraqi intransigence to the proposed output cuts remains in full force while competitive pressures among OPEC members was highlighted by news that Iran displaced Saudi Arabia as the top oil supplier to India," Stephen Brennock of oil brokerage PVM said.Iran overtook Saudi Arabia as India's top oil supplier for the first time in October, shipping data showed.

Iraq would have to compensate international oil companies for limits placed on their production, further reducing the prospect it would join any OPEC deal to curb the group's output.

Jason Gammel of U.S. investment bank Jefferies said a cut of at least 700,000 barrels per day was needed to balance the market in the first quarter of 2017.

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Copper, Gold, and Silver Are Weaker Early on November 16

Copper continues to move away from its highs

After falling 0.56% on November 15 amid decreased momentum, copper prices carried the same weakness into the early hours on November 16. At 6:20 AM EST on November 16, the COMEX copper futures contract for December delivery fell ~1.2% to $2.48 per pound.

Stronger dollar and decreased momentum

Copper’s rally to a 17-month high is fading. The firmer dollar also weighed on copper prices. Copper gained close to 19% from its October lows and reached the highest levels since May 2015. Since the beginning of the week, copper fell ~1.1% amid profit-booking and caution by analysts that the current rally is overdone. Until last week, the prices took support from improved copper demand signals from China and hopes about an increase in US infrastructural spending. Since China is the largest copper consumer, China’s economic strength will influence copper’s demand trends globally.

On November 15, major copper producers Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rose 0.57%, while Glencore (GLNCY), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RIO) fell 5%, 3.1%, and 3.8%. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 1%, while the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) fell 0.07%.

Gold and silver are weaker in the early hours

Gold and silver are weaker in the early hours on November 16. At 6:30 AM EST on November 16, the COMEX gold futures contract for December delivery fell ~0.04% to $1,224.05 per ounce. The silver futures contract for December delivery was trading at $16.97 per ounce—a fall of ~0.44%. The firmer dollar is stable at 11-month high levels in the early hours. It’s weighing on gold and silver prices. On November 15, precious metal producers Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Silver Wheaton (SLW), and Royal Gold (RGLD) rose 6.4%, 4.0%, 7.2%, and 4.3%, respectively. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) rose 0.84%.

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Dollar soars as U.S. yields spike; U.S. bank stocks rise

The U.S. dollar hit an 11-month peak against a basket of currencies on Monday as the risk of faster inflation and wider budget deficits sent Treasury bond yields shooting higher.On Wall Street, the Dow Industrials set a record high led by financial stocks, on the expectation of looser regulations and consumer protections that could lift profits. Indexes turned negative in mid-morning trading, weighed by declines in the technology sector.

The dollar .DXY traded above the eye-catching 100 level against the world's other major currencies .DXY. The euro slumped to its lowest versus the greenback since January and the yen was at its weakest since June.The dollar has been romping ahead since Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election last week triggered a massive selloff in Treasuries.

"A lot of the move with the dollar has to do with higher yields," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at FXCM in New York. "It's a seismic moment for markets."Trump's win also sparked expectations of similar victories in Europe in the coming months. Worries over a rising tide of nationalist sentiment and restrictions on trade across Europe put pressure on the euro, analysts said.

Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury notes climbed to their highest since December at 2.302 percent US10YT=RR, while 30-year paper climbed above 3.06 percent, also the highest since December. German 30-year yields touched their highest since March above 1.06 percent, but gave up most of the day's rise.Though selling moderated in early North American trading, analysts said they see no end in sight for the overall move lower in bond prices and higher in yields.

"I think there’s more to go. I think we’ve topped out as far as the value of bonds," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies and Co."Trump is talking about running an extremely loose fiscal policy, higher spending and lower taxes, and his trade and immigration policies suggest that the labor market is going to get even tighter. All of that adds up to a pretty high inflation environment in the future."Rising inflation hurts bond prices because it makes their future interest payments worth less.The stampede from bonds has seen 30-year yields post their biggest weekly increase since January 2009 and the 50-basis-point move in 10-year bonds is the equivalent of two standard interest rate hikes.The market has priced in a 77-percent chance of a 25 basis points rate increase at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for next month.

GREENBACK HITS COMMODITIES

Bank stocks were the leading force on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 bank index .SPXBK touching its highest level since March 2008. However a drop in the biggest tech companies, which also carry the largest market capitalizations, kept the S&P 500 in negative territory.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 16.27 points, or 0.09 percent, to 18,863.93, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 3.56 points, or 0.16 percent, to 2,160.89 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 22.49 points, or 0.43 percent, to 5,214.62.Emerging market stocks .MSCIEF hit their lowest since July and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.5 percent.

By contrast, Japan's Nikkei .N225 jumped 1.7 percent to its highest since February, boosted by a weaker yen.In commodities, the strong U.S. dollar put pressure on gold, which fell for a third consecutive session despite its appeal as an inflation hedge. Copper rose 0.2 percent after earlier gaining as much as 3.4 percent CMCU3.
In the oil market, Brent crude fell to its lowest in three months as the prospect of another year of oversupply and weak prices overshadowed chances that OPEC will reach a deal to cut output.U.S. crude CLc1 was down 2.6 percent at $42.30 a barrel and Brent LCOc1 last traded at $43.65, down 2.5 percent on the day.
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Copper, Gold, and Silver Are Stronger in the Early Hours

Copper rose in the early hours

After rising for 11 consecutive trading days, copper prices are stronger in the early hours on November 9. At 5:30 AM EST on November 9, the COMEX copper futures contract for December delivery was trading at $2.44 per pound—a rise of 2.7%.

Copper reached the highest level since September 2015

Copper prices reached the highest level since September 2015 by carrying forward the 11-day rising streak. Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election made the US dollar fall and supported copper prices. The weaker US dollar supports the prices of dollar-denominated commodities such as copper, gold, and silver. Improved demand signals from China also supported the prices. Considering that China is the largest copper consumer, China’s major economic releases influence copper’s demand and price trends globally. The recently released Caixin manufacturing data rose to the highest level in more than four years. The manufacturing output is the highest in five and half years. There’s also improved sentiment in the copper market.

On November 8, major copper producers Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Glencore (GLNCY), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RIO) rose 7.1%, 1.2%, 3.2%, and 1.3%, respectively. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) and the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) rose 1.3% and 0.96%.

Gold and silver rose in the early hours on November 9

Gold and silver rose in the early hours on November 9. At 5:35 AM EST on November 9, the COMEX gold futures contract for December delivery rose ~2.2% to $1,302.15 per ounce. The silver futures contract for December delivery was trading at $18.69 per ounce—a gain of ~1.9%. Trump’s surprise win in the US presidential election weighed on the dollar and supported precious metal prices. On November 8, precious metal producers Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Royal Gold (RGLD) fell 1.2%, 1.2%, and 0.72%, respectively, while Silver Wheaton (SLW) rose 0.94%. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) fell 0.42%

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Should You Trade Forex During Retirement?

If you are lucky, you find yourself reaching a golden age where you can retire from the professional world to enjoy a life of comfortable leisure. Though we all aspire to have physical health and wealth when we retire, it is all too common for retirees to find themselves wishing that they were more financially stable. For this reason, new retirees often ask themselves if there is something they can do that is not too difficult, stressful or time consuming to supplement their retirement income or capital. Forex trading might fit the bill, but there are several considerations that must be made before proceeding.

Free Time

Most retirees would agree that the best thing about being retired is having lots of free time. Forex trading is something you can do at home and you can keep one eye on the screen even if you are busy with something else. So, it seems that regarding time, trading during retirement can work very well. Of course, if you plan to be very active playing golf, volunteering, travelling or visiting your grandchildren, that is something to take into account – you may not be available during the most ideal trading times to make Forex trading into a serious hobby or pursuit.

Financial Pressure & Risk

It is well known that the easiest psychological situation for traders is when there is little or no pressure to make profit immediately or regularly. This is an area where the exact circumstances of your retirement will matter. If you are well capitalized and can be relaxed about when profit arrives, you are in a strong trading situation and should be able to remain psychologically healthy which could stop you making any expensive or emotionally destructive mistakes.

Alternatively, if you are trying to make an additional regular or semi-regular income to supplement your retirement income and you truly need this money, you are putting yourself in what could likely be a very bad situation. At this stage in your life, you want to leave you IRA (Individual Retirement Account or non-U.S. equivalent) alone. It is especially dangerous to put yourself under this kind of emotional, physical and financial pressure during retirement as if you suffer bad losses, you probably won’t have a chance in life to recover from it. This is truly the number one factor you should be considering.

It must be emphasized that risk factors must to be taken extremely seriously at this stage in your life. Capital preservation must be the number one priority!

Emotional and Physical Health

You might not be at your peak physical health by the time you retire. Even though it is more than likely that you have all your wisdom and intelligence intact, you must be brutally honest with yourself and question how precisely you are going to be able to use technology under pressure. After all, trading is very unforgiving in the sense that even small errors can be very expensive, and cannot be reversed.

The good news is that there are some steps you can take in this area to minimize the risks. Firstly, you can trade using a slower system, perhaps relying upon daily, four-hour or hourly charts, which should enable events to unfold at a much more relaxed and manageable pace. This might reduce the room for errors to creep in. Secondly, you might also have a companion or helper who could provide a second pair of eyes to cast a look at your operations in the market. Thirdly, it is worth asking your broker about built-in safety measures that might be available for your protection. For example, some brokers have a feature where if you enter an unusually large trade size, it asks you to reconfirm the trade before proceeding. This type of safeguard can protect against “fat finger” mistakes. It is worth asking your account manager whether he (or she) could implement something informally for your account, for example by requiring telephone confirmation to make a trade over a certain size.

Forex Trading Strategies for Seniors

If you have weighed the pros and cons and have decided to go ahead, you need to decide what kind of trading strategy you will be using.

A trend-following strategy could be ideal as these are long-term strategies that don’t require a lot of physical effort or emotional stress.

If you insist upon taking advantage of the fact that you are master of your own time and you wish to look at shorter time frames, you might consider only trading major session opens. This could be 8am to 10am London time, New York time or Tokyo time, depending upon which time zone you are located in. Usually it is the London and New York opens that are the most fruitful. I once read a very convincing trading journal by a retired couple who decide what to trade that day and in what direction just before 8am London time, then they look for trade entries between 8am and 10am before continuing with their day. There is no reason why this couldn’t be the basis of an excellent and profitable Forex trading strategy for seniors.

COMEX GOLD RECOVERS BUT COPPER PRICE SINKS FURTHER

The Comex copper price fell further on the morning of Wednesday, October 19 in the US despite easing concerns that Chinese growth is slowing down.Copper for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped 0.55 cents or 0.3% to $2.1000 per pound. The contract has now declined for seven consecutive sessions.Comex gold for December delivery rose $10.20 or 0.8% to $1,273.10 per oz. Trade has ranged from $1,261.10 to $1,273.50 so far.

Earlier this morning, Chinese GDP growth for the third quarter at 6.7% was as expected, as were fixed asset investment at 8.2% and retail sales at 10.7%. Industrial production, however, at 6.1% fell short of the forecast 6.4%.Overall, these numbers show that China is maintaining economic growth at Beijing’s targeted range of 6.5-7%, although the disappointing industrial production figure has maintained downward pressure on the base metals, market participants said.

“The stabilisation of the Chinese economy is due primarily to stronger domestic demand, especially in the real estate sector and also in the automotive industry,” Commerzbank said.“However, because there are signs of overheating on the housing market, the Chinese government has taken steps to cool the market down. These are likely to have a negative impact on China’s economy in the next quarters,” it added.China’s apparent consumption of major base metals is set to slow over 2016-2020, with annual copper demand growth to ease to an average of 3.3% during this period, the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said.

In the precious metals, gold prices have been by constrained by a rise in the dollar index to a seven-month high of 98.17 on Monday. But it inched lower this morning to 97.85 after US inflation and housing data fell short of expectations.The easing in the dollar also follows comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen highlighting the potential benefits of temporarily running a “high-pressure economy” to stimulate business investment and jobs growth, James Moore, a research analyst at Metal Bulletin, said.While US building permits in September at 1.23 million beat the forecast of 1.17 million, housing starts over the same period at 1.05 million undershot the expected 1.18 million.

Yesterday, the NAHB housing market index at 63 was lower than predicted, as was the CPI at 0.1%. The core CPI was as expected at 0.3%.Later today, crude oil inventories and the beige book are due.
In European markets, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were down 0.2% and 0.1% respectively while the dollar strengthened by 0.2% to 1.0963 against the euro.

In other commodities, light sweet crude (WTI) oil futures on the Nymex gained 72 cents or 1.4% to $51.34 per barrel while Comex silver for December settlement was recently at $17.735 per oz, up 9.7 cents
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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis

December Comex High Grade Copper futures continue to tread water shortly before the regular session opening. The market is trading slightly lower after an earlier rally failed to attract enough buyers to continue the move.
Most major players are on the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. This decision is important to copper traders because it will affect the U.S. Dollar. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in September, but may present a hawkish statement that supports a December rate hike. Because of this, we may see a two-sided trade in copper after the statement is released.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $2.1680 will signal a resumption of the uptrend with the main top at $2.2000 the next likely upside target. The uptrend is safe for now because the swing bottom is way down at $2.0640.

The main range is $2.2570 to $2.0640. Its retracement zone at $2.1605 to $2.1835 is currently providing resistance. A downtrending angle passes through this zone at $2.1695, making it a valid upside target also.

The short-term range is $2.0640 to $2.1680. Its retracement zone at $2.1160 to $2.1035 is the primary downside target.

The market is currently trading inside a downtrending channel. The top of the channel comes in at $2.1695. The bottom of the channel comes in at $2.1450. This channel is controlling the direction of the market.Breaking the support angle at $2.1450 could trigger a break into the next uptrending angle at $2.1240.

Taking out the resistance angle at $2.1695 could drive copper prices into $2.1835.

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Gold Prices Reverse Course as Dollar Gains

Gold prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. dollar strengthened and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged.

Gold for December delivery settled down 0.6% at $1,341.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, reversing course after trading as high as $1,352.50 earlier in the session. The drop marked the second consecutive day of losses for the precious metal.

The ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged sparked selling in government bonds and a rise in yields, which put pressure on gold prices, said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets.

ECB President Mario Draghi “ kept his weapon in the holster today,” said Mr. Wong. “The higher interest rates created a little bit of a correction in gold.”

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold, which pays its holders nothing and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, was recently up 0.3% at 86.13. A stronger dollar is typically bearish for gold, because it makes the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive for investors who hold other currencies.

The strength of the dollar has been a driving factor for the gold price for the past few weeks, acting as a signal for expectations on the timing of a future U.S. rate increase, said Carsten Menke, a commodities research analyst at Julius Baer.
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Wall St hits fresh records as as oil hits one-month high

US stocks rose to fresh records overnight, led by gains in commodity-linked shares as crude oil prices reached a one-month high.

European shares were modestly higher as several traders took public holidays. European markets are also waiting for the first official data from Britain since the Brexit vote.

The positive global leads are set to boost the Australian market this morning, with ASX futures seven points higher at 6.35am (AEST).

Shares of US mining and chemical companies climbed, while energy shares gained 0.6 per cent as oil climbed again after posting its best week since April. US crude futures rose 2.8 per cent to settle at $US45.74 a barrel, extending gains in the wake of last week’s signals that major producers may consider working to cap production.

Those gains have helped boost stocks in recent sessions. The S&P 500 has risen for six of the past seven weeks.

Overnight (AEST), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 18636. The S&P 500 added 0.3 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6 per cent.
Retail companies are providing the bulk of earnings reports in the S&P 500 over the next two weeks, according to FactSet, after better-than-expected results from J.C. Penny and Nordstrom helped lift consumer shares last week. Nordstrom and Kohl’s were among the biggest gainers in the index, though disappointing retail sales data released Friday helped bolster investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve isn’t likely to raise interest rates soon.

Fed-funds futures, used by investors to place bets on central bank policy, show a less-than-50 per cent probability of a rate rise by December, according to CME Group.

Expectations for more central bank accommodation should continue to support equities, analysts said, even amid mixed economic data and relatively high valuations on US stocks.

While dependence on central bank stimulus is “not healthy or good,” it should “keep the show going,” said Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart & Company.
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Palladium futures settle at highest level in over a year

Palladium futures rallied Wednesday to settle at their highest level in more than a year, with strong vehicle sales in China implying strong demand for the metal used in car-making.

A weaker U.S. dollar provided support to the broad dollar-peg precious-metals complex.

Gold and silver futures notched a second straight session of gains as some traders bet on a potential rise in Asian demand for the yellow metal.

September palladium PAU6, -0.69%  jumped up by $32.05, or 4.6%, to settle at $726.40 an ounce on Comex. The settlement was the highest for futures prices since mid-June 2015, according to FactSet. Futures prices for the metal trade more than 30% higher year to date.

Its sister metal, October platinum PLV6, -0.32% added $23.20, or 2%, to $1,183.10 an ounce, with prices based on the most-active contracts scoring for the strongest finish since early March of last year.

Meanwhile, December gold GCZ6, -0.22% rose $5.20, or 0.4%, to finish at $1,351.90 an ounce. Silver for September delivery SIU6, -0.45%  jumped 32 cents, or 1.6%, to $20.17 an ounce.

Metals got a boost “due to short-covering as the bears view the falling dollar, stalling stock market, and tight trade in the palladium market being a trade they want to walk away from,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group. “When shorts cover, it adds buying pressure to a security, driving the price up.”

He said palladium and silver are most likely outpacing gains in gold as traders look for “something new and exciting. Maybe investor psychology has humans convinced that if they buy something not so mainstream, maybe they’ll make more money.”

Weakness in the dollar versus its currency rivals also helped make metals that are traded in the greenback more attractive to overseas buyers. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.16%  fell 0.5%.

Additionally, China’s car market grew at its fastest pace in six months in June, driven by a tax break, according to Dow Jones. That signals a likely spike in demand for palladium and platinum, which are both used to make car parts.

As for gold and silver, Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at New Delhi-based Insignia Consultants, said he is bullish on both, and expects to see a rise in physical demand for the metals.

The Indian Hindu festival season will begin on Aug. 18 and the monsoon rainfall has been good all over India, he said.

Given that, “rural demand for gold and silver will be on the higher side of expectation curve,” said Karnani. And “tensions in the South China Sea will ensure higher gold demand from East Asia as well.”

Overall, however, gold prices have been subdued since last week’s stronger-than-expected July jobs report pushed down precious metals prices as expectations for a U.S. interest-rate hike in 2016 increased. So far this month, gold futures are off about 0.2%, but year to date are up 28%.

The near-term challenge for the precious metal is a “stronger dollar and positive risk sentiment on back of upbeat U.S. data,” said UBS strategist Joni Teves, in a note to clients. See Economic Calendar.

She said the likely catalyst for a pickup in trading activity is the looming Federal Reserve retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. It takes place Aug. 26 and may offer some clues on the speed and scope of potential interest-rate hikes. Higher rates are presumed to boost the dollar, cutting the appeal of greenback-priced gold to overseas investors. Further, a rising-rate climate tends to sway investors away from nonyielding gold into yield-bearing alternatives.

Still, precious metals prices remain underpinned by global economic uncertainty and bets that the rates could stay lower for longer, some analysts argue. And with global interest rates so low, Teves made her bullish gold position clear.

“We would regard any further weakness up ahead as a potential buying opportunity, given our view that the macro story remains intact,” she said.

Read: The chart that’s proving crash-happy stock bears wrong

Rounding out metals trading Wednesday, high-grade copper for September delivery HGU6, +0.46% rose 2.1 cents, or 1%, to $2.171 a pound.

Among exchange-traded funds, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, +0.47%  rose 0.5% and the silver ETF iShares Silver Trust SLV, +1.54%  added 1.6%, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, +1.76%  rose 2.1%.
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Oil higher on OPEC supply curb talk

Oil was higher early Monday on talk of supply curbs by some OPEC members. U.S. crude was up 62 cents, or 1.48%, at $42.42 at 06:45 ET, while Brent crude added 1.38% to $44.88. The possibility of an OPEC cap on output is unlikely as key memberspush ahead with efforts to increase market share. OPEC said Monday it expects demand for oil and prices to increase in the
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Gross essential oil along 2/3rd given that May well 2014; fuel merely 16% with Asia.

Completely NEW DELHI: A new litre connected with petroleum charge Rs 71. 41 throughout Might 2014 as soon as overseas acrylic was at $106. eighty-five each barrel yet even with around two-third slip throughout world wide charges, the price of petroleum possesses viewed solely 07 percent diminish as well as stays at Rs sixty each litre.

Inside a written answer the dilemma throughout Rajya Sabha, acrylic minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Friday stated the baskets connected with gross acrylic which The Indian subcontinent tends to buy averaged $106. eighty-five each barrel throughout Might 2014 which thirty days it really is averaging at $29. eighty.

Petrol throughout Might 2014, as soon as BJP-government had taken office, was costs three hundred dollars Rs 71. 41 each litre and from now on the idea costs Rs 59. 97 the litre, he stated.
In the same way, diesel-powered charge Rs 55. forty nine the litre throughout Might 2014 which thirty days it really is offered by Rs forty-four. 68 each litre.

Pradhan stated because Might 2014 the costa rica government possesses brought up excise responsibility on petroleum through Rs 12 each litre as well as through Rs 13. seventy seven the litre on diesel-powered.

Excise responsibility on petroleum on Might 1, 2014 was Rs 9. forty-eight each litre as well as on Friday it really is Rs 7. forty-eight the litre. In the same way, exactly the same on diesel-powered was Rs 3. 56 the litre which thirty days it really is Rs 13. seventy seven the litre.

As you move the cost reduction in petroleum among Might 2014 as well as Feb . was Rs 11. 46 each litre, the costa rica government mopped upwards Rs 12 the litre throughout excise responsibility.
In the same way, the reduction in diesel-powered cost have been Rs 10. 80 the litre yet excise responsibility possesses gone up through Rs 13. seventy seven each litre.

Crude Oil Tips

Financial plan 2016: MCX urges government to scrap product exchange charge

NEW DELHI: Leading merchandise course MCX today encouraged the legislature to scrap product exchange charge (CTT) and permit outside stock course/money related bodies to hold up to 15 for every penny stake in the perceived item course.

CTT, which is set up since July 1, 2013, is a duty demanded on trade exchanged merchandise derivative ..

Non-horticultural things ought not be subjected to CTT similar to the case with agrarian wares, as these agreements offer SMEs to fence in rupee some assistance with denominating contracts in a compelling way on residential trades," MCX said sharing its financial plan list of things to get for the 2016-17 monetary.

CTT expanded the expense of exchanging of trade exchanged subordinates exchanging by very nearly 300 for every penny. There has been more than 50 for every penny decrease in exchanging volumes after presentation of CTT, it said in a statement ..

That separated, MCX has looked for the legislature to permit cenvat credit for the main expulsion of excusable merchandise from trade assigned distribution center after beginning statement in the same stockroom to energize conveyance construct exchanges in light of thing trades. The above office might be conveyed under the proposed GST administration moreover.

MCX additionally requested the administration permit a remote stock trade/store/saving money organization/insurance agency/open budgetary foundation to hold up to 15 for every penny of ..

MCX additionally requested the administration permit a remote stock trade/store/saving money organization/insurance agency/open budgetary foundation to hold up to 15 for every penny of the paid up value capital of perceived stock trades, the announcement included.