Investors Sit On Sidelines Even As Dow Hits Record, Rush Into Gold

during the last week, buyers increased their investments in world bonds and gold, and endured to withdraw from the U.S. fairness market while the U.S. equity market hit document highs, data provided via Jefferies show.

investors bought over $13 billion value of bonds in the closing week, a 31-week high and marking the 7th consecutive weekly influx. They endured to buy company bonds and inflation-safe executive bonds.

in the meantime, buyers web sold $991 million price of shares, concerned about hefty valuations within the U.S. market.

Gold was the darling the final week. traders poured a internet $1.6 billion into the precious steel.

moving onto Asia. apparently, foreigners took profit and net sold $2.2 billion value of jap stocks, the 0.33 consecutive week of outflow. but Asia-based totally mutual dollars and ETFs internet sold $three.8 billion, more than offsetting foreigners’ fund withdrawal.

emerging markets usually saw the fifth consecutive week of inflow, totaling $1.3 billion last week.

12 months-to-date, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (undercover agent) rose three.2%, the SPDR Gold belief (GLD) soared 7%, the PIMCO whole Returns lively ETF (BOND) rose 1.3%, the iShares MSCI rising Markets ETF (EEM) soared eight.2%, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) received four.four%.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold rallies to 12-week high on bets for less aggressive Fed

Gold prices received in European morning alternate on Monday, rising toward the best stage in about 12 weeks as traders scaled back expectations for a extra aggressive p.c. of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this yr.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the new York Mercantile alternate rose to a session peak of $1,227.00 a troy ounce, essentially the most in view that November sixteen.

It was last at $1,225.forty five by way of three:15AM ET (08:15GMT), up $4.fifty five, or round zero.four%.

costs of the yellow metal climbed 2.4% remaining week, its very best weekly acquire in seven months.

the latest U.S. employment file confirmed that jobs growth beat expectations, however wage increase remained tepid, with the intention to likely suggested the Fed to undertake a extra cautious means on elevating rates of interest this year.

The U.S. economy delivered 227,000 jobs in January from the prior month, the Labor division stated Friday, whereas the unemployment charge ticked up to four.eight% from 4.7% in December, as extra americans joined the group of workers.

but reasonable hourly earnings rose just zero.1% in January from a year prior, under expectations for a 0.3% rise and slowing from 0.2% in December. The small gain lowered the yr-on-12 months elevate in salary to 2.5% from 2.eight% in December.

The susceptible wage growth used to be considered as weakening the case for near-time period interest rate hikes.

Fed fund futures priced in a not up to 10% probability of a charge hike in March after the roles information on Friday, in line with Investing.com’s Fed charge screen device. Odds of a June increase was seen at more than 60%.

The Fed, which raised charges in December, has forecast three charge will increase this 12 months. on the other hand, merchants remained unconvinced, with markets continuing to value in simply two rate hikes right through the route of this yr.

The U.S. buck index, which measures the dollar’s potential towards a alternate-weighted basket of six main currencies, was at ninety nine.eighty five in early European trade, now not far from closing week's two-month low of ninety nine.19.

The greenback has been beneath power amid growing subject concerning the doable affect of the Trump Administration’s protectionist stance.

Headlines from Washington will proceed to dictate market sentiment as merchants center of attention on Trump for further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation in addition to exchange insurance policies.

additionally on the Comex, silver futures for March supply jumped 9.9 cents, or zero.6%, to $17.57 a troy ounce.

in the meantime, platinum tacked on zero.4% to $1,010.40, whereas palladium climbed around 1.5% to $759.85 an ounce.

in different places in metals buying and selling, copper futures inched up 1.6 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.632 a pound.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Gold marks first gain in 5 sessions as Dow sinks below 20,000

Gold futures settled with a achieve on Monday for the primary time in 5 buying and selling classes, as signs of rising inflation and a steep decline in U.S. equities helped to lift investment demand in the treasured metal.

traders also are bracing for every week filled with economic data and a two-day assembly of the Federal Reserve to achieve recommendations on the place prices for the metallic may head next.

A intently watched reading on the labor market is due on Friday and a two-day assembly of the Fed is set to kick off Tuesday. both key occasions, amongst others, could alter expectations for passion-price will increase and power the greenback and belongings pegged to it like gold.

On Monday, April gold GCJ7, +0.57% essentially the most lively futures contract, rose $4.90, or zero.four%, to settle at $1,196 an oz. The contract lost roughly 1.4% last week as potential within the buck and recent all-time highs in main U.S. stock indexes dulled demand for haven investments.

March silver SIH7, +zero.28% edged up by way of 1.6 cents, or just below 0.1%, to $17.152 an oz..

A studying of U.S. consumer inflation, as measured by way of the Fed’s preferred metric, non-public-consumption costs, rose in December to the strongest studying in more than two years, in keeping with information launched early Monday. The PCE rose 0.2% in December and the overall annual price rose to 1.6%, marking the highest fee considering the fact that September 2014. consumer spending additionally rose 0.5%

within the month, matching Wall street estimates and representing the largest spending elevate in Decembe

strikes for the buck and gold come as Trump has introduced controversial executive orders that intention to restrict immigrants from seven nations—Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Syria and Libya—coming into the U.S. Uncertainty about the implications of the restrictions and confusion about their implementation additionally have been being factored into funding selections.

On the bullish aspect for gold, the “buck will doubtless continue to weaken provided that the foreign money markets are still in the process of discounting a reasonably bumpy begin to Donald Trump’s presidency, which by way of all accounts, presentations little sign of stabilizing,” said Edward Meir, independent commodity guide at INTL FCStone, in a weekend be aware.

other metals traded on Comex ended on a blended word. March copperHGH7, +zero.40%  fell 3.5 cents, or 1.three%, to $2.655 a pound. April platinumPLJ7, +zero.17%  finished at $993.50 an oz, up $10.20, or 1%, whereas March palladium PAH7, +1.forty one%  fell 15 cents to $738.45 an oz.

In exchange-traded cash, the iShares Silver trust SLV, +zero.06% edged down with the aid of 0.1%, whereas the gold-centered SPDR Gold trust GLD, +0.42% was up about 0.three%, and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, -0.30% shed 0.2%

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

Remember The Hunt Brothers? The Silver Market Is Now Cornered Again

Summary

1.The Shanghai Gold Exchange is rapidly accumulating silver.

2.Most recently North American speculators increased their net long positions in silver futures. On the other hand, they are still liquidating their net long positions in gold futures.

3.Three entities, SGE, COMEX and SLV, hold 583 million ounces of silver (66% of the forecasted 2016 annual production); in my opinion, the silver market is cornered.

4.Given all this, I expect that in the coming years silver will perform much better than gold.

In my last article on gold I presented a thesis that during the ongoing correction in precious metals the American investors were selling gold while the Chinese investors were buying it. In conclusion, I wrote:

"In other words, to see substantially higher prices of gold the physical accumulation of gold by American investors must begin. Now, according to GLD reports, we see the selling pressure (indeed, the lower one but it is still the selling pressure). The gold bugs have to wait…"

In this article I would like to look at the silver market. The common knowledge is that silver goes in tandem with gold. Putting it differently, the patterns delivered by the silver market should coincide with those delivered by gold. However, most recently silver is sending somewhat different signals from those of gold.

The Chinese are accumulating silver

In my previous article on gold I discussed the differences between the Chinese and American approach to gold. Shortly speaking, the Chinese demand for gold increases when the prices of gold go down while the American investors tend to buy gold when its prices go up (fortunately, during the final stage of a correction in gold prices the Americans start buying again). The same pattern is visible in silver:

Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Investor Arena: Keeping an Eye on iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Sharp investors may be looking to examine the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. Developed by Larry Williams, this indicator helps spot overbought and oversold market conditions. The Williams %R shows how the current closing price compares to previous highs/lows over a specified period. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)’s Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R is sitting at -92.75. Typically, if the value heads above -20, the stock may be considered to be overbought. On the flip side, if the indicator goes under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold.

Another technical indicator that might serve as a powerful resource for measuring trend strength is the Average Directional Index or ADX. The ADX was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s and it has stood the test of time. The ADX is typically used in conjunction with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to help spot trend direction as well as trend strength. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is noted at 48.9. Many technical analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal.

Investors may use various technical indicators to help spot trends and buy/sell signals. Presently, iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -236.81. The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert. The assumption behind the indicator is that investment instruments move in cycles with highs and lows coming at certain periodic intervals. The original guidelines focused on creating buy/sell signals when the reading moved above +100 or below -100. Traders may also use the reading to identify overbought/oversold conditions.

Taking a look at other technical levels, the 3-day RSI stands at 4.47, the 7-day sits at 12.84 and the 14-day (most common) is at 19.77. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an often employed momentum oscillator that is used to measure the speed and change of stock price movements. When charted, the RSI can serve as a visual means to monitor historical and current strength or weakness in a certain market. This measurement is based on closing prices over a specific period of time. As a momentum oscillator, the RSI operates in a set range. This range falls on a scale between 0 and 100. If the RSI is closer to 100, this may indicate a period of stronger momentum. On the flip side, an RSI near 0 may signal weaker momentum. The RSI was originally created by J. Welles Wilder which was introduced in his 1978 book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”.

Keeping an eye on Moving Averages, the 50-day is 11.84, the 200-day is at 12.29, and the 7-day is 11.13. Moving averages have the ability to be used as a powerful indicator for technical stock analysis. Following multiple time frames using moving averages can help investors figure out where the stock has been and help determine where it may be possibly going. The simple moving average is a mathematical calculation that takes the average price (mean) for a given amount of time.
Read More - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

The World Is Feeling the Might of China’s Commodity Traders

The Chinese speculators shaking up global commodity markets are switched-on, flush with cash and probably not getting enough sleep.For the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts. Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating.While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds. They’re chasing better returns in commodities as stocks and real estate fade, often using algorithms and trading late into the night, when markets in London and New York are most active.

“There is no doubt that the price moves and the bigger volumes worldwide are being driven by the Chinese, and by professional speculators and financial players,” said Tiger Shi, managing partner at brokerage BANDS Financial Ltd., which counts several of those funds as clients. “The western hedge funds and institutional investors don’t really know what’s going on. Often they were used to trading macro factors or Fed policy, but now they find they have fewer advantages.”Shi, previously head of metals in Asia at Jefferies Group LLC and Newedge Financial Inc., estimates that China may have more than 5,000 hedge funds active in commodities. At least 10 manage assets of more than 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion).

The use of algorithmic trading, in which computers execute multiple orders in milliseconds, is turbo-charging volume and volatility, according to Fu Peng, a portfolio manager at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund Management Co. About a third of activity on Chinese exchanges is executed by automated commands, which generates more volume and greater momentum in the global markets, Shi estimates.

A recent example was on Nov. 11. Copper in Shanghai jumped by the most since trading began in 2004 amid a surge in volume. On the London Metal Exchange, it gained as much as 7.6 percent, before sinking 1.7 percent in the Asian evening. The gap between the day’s high and low was more than $500, the widest in five years, and the intensity of the swing was just as big in New York futures.

“I can recall only two other occasions in my career where there was such panic and devastating price action in copper but this market today is far less transparent,” Matthew France, head of institutional sales for metals in Asia at Marex Spectron Group, said in an e-mailed report on Nov. 14. “The machine component in the market is now so much bigger as is the onshore retail and fund involvement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and OTC options.”

The country’s biggest hedge funds include DH Fund Management Co., Shanghai Discovering Investment Co. and Shanghai Chaos Investment Group. Officials for all three declined to comment for this story.Over less than two weeks this month, the value of daily transactions on China’s three commodity exchanges more than doubled to peak at $226 billion on Nov. 14. Sparked by speculation that government reforms are helping reduce oversupply of raw materials amid signs of improving demand, Chinese money is pouring into commodities as investors look for better returns than other assets including stocks or real estate, according to Fu at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund Management.

“The nation’s supply-side reforms had a big impact on the market balance, and that’s the fundamentals behind the trading,” Fu said by mobile phone from Hong Kong. “But at the same time, we’ve got too much money there. There have been no returns from investment in industries. The stock market is neither dead nor alive. Investment in real estate also got curbed. So all the money is rushing into commodities.”For a story on how hot money is flowing back into commodities, click hereThe Bloomberg Commodity Index has returned 8.8 percent this year compared with a 7.2 percent drop in the Shanghai Composite Index of equities, and the government has imposed measures to cool the country’s real estate market.“Commodities market volatility is liquidity driven, as money from commercial bank wealth management products and private banking accounts flow into the market seeking higher return,” said Li Yulong, chief investment officer at Jyah Asset Management, a mutual fund which overseas more than 9 billion yuan.

Chinese traders are often most active during the night session, when trading also typically peaks on the LME and on Comex in New York. On almost two-thirds of the past 30 trading days, copper trading was heaviest between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. in Shanghai, bourse data show. Analysis of volume and open interest suggests they typically hold contracts for only a few hours.

Similar to the last frenzy in April, the government-owned exchanges have stepped in to cool trading by raising fees and margins, or cutting the number of new positions allowed daily. Volume and turnover have since come off their highs but prices are still swinging. Copper is poised for its biggest monthly advance in a decade in London and has briefly jumped above $6,000 a metric ton. Zinc rose to its highest in more than nine years, while lead jumped to the most since 2011 in Shanghai on Tuesday amid record volume.

“The massive and unprecedented surge in Chinese trading volume in base metals over the past month -- but especially since the election -- has put LME metals traders on red alert,” Tai Wong, director of commodity products trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said in an e-mail. The price moves caused by Chinese traders make “a strong argument that the Middle Kingdom is once again the center of the world, at least for metals,” he said.

Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Trading Roundup: Checking Technicals for iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Investors have the ability to employ technical indicators when undertaking stock research. At the time of writing, iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -76.22. Developed by Donald Lambert, the CCI is a versatile tool that may be used to help spot an emerging trend or provide warning of extreme conditions. CCI generally measures the current price relative to the average price level over a specific time period. CCI is relatively high when prices are much higher than average, and relatively low when prices are much lower than the average.

Presently, the 14-day ADX for iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is resting at 27.78. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would indicate a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would signal a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would indicate an extremely strong trend. The Average Directional Index or ADX may prove to be an important tool for trading or investing. The ADX is a technical indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder used to determine the strength of a trend. The ADX is often used along with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of the trend.

Moving average indicators are used widely for stock analysis. Many traders will use a combination of moving averages with different time frames to help review stock trend direction. One of the more popular combinations is to use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Investors may use the 200-day MA to help smooth out the data a get a clearer long-term picture. They may look to the 50-day or 20-day to get a better grasp of what is going on with the stock in the near-term. Narrowing in on Moving Averages, the 200-day is at 12.34, the 50-day is 12.3, and the 7-day is resting at 11.72.

Investors may be watching other technical indicators such as the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that helps measure oversold and overbought levels. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock in relation to the highs and lows over a certain time period. A common look back period is 14 days. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)’s Williams %R presently stands at -94.79. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would indicate an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would indicate an oversold situation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a highly popular technical indicator. The RSI is computed base on the speed and direction of a stock’s price movement. The RSI is considered to be an internal strength indicator, not to be confused with relative strength which is compared to other stocks and indices. The RSI value will always move between 0 and 100. One of the most popular time frames using RSI is the 14-day. Using the 14-day RSI, if a stock price rose for 14 straight days, the value would be 100. The 14-day RSI is presently standing at 29.76, the 7-day sits at 25.65, and the 3-day is resting at 28.92.

Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold Signals Trump Is No Different

A massive take-down of the gold and silver markets was put into action shortly after it became obvious that Trump was going to take the election, shortly after midnight EST. Gold had finished soaring about $64 when early returns indicated the possibility of an upset. So why was gold methodically disembowelled once Trump emerged as the official winner?
Contrary to all the propaganda smoke being blown from the right and the left, Trump won because of economics. Going back to 1932, in any Presidential election year in which the growth in real disposable income was less than 3.1%, the incumbent party holding the White House lost the White House – in 2016 the official real disposable income growth has been 2.33%. Please re-read that fact and let it sink in.

In other words, people vote with their wallets. The reason gold has been inexorably smashed in the paper markets – along with the Dow and S&P 500 manipulated higher – is nothing more than a form of propaganda in an attempt to make the public believe that a Trump presidency is a good thing – that Trump can save the economy from collapse. Jim Sinclair refers to this as “MOPE:” Management of Perception Economics. It’s the Central Planners’ signal that they still intend to continue stealing your wealth. They don’t care who is sitting in the Oval Office.
The takedown in gold included cooperation from India’s Prime Minister – a western elitist lapdog – who “coincidentally” removed large denomination currency bills from the banking system last week in an attempt to curtail the Indian public’s current voracious appetite for physical gold. Removing this element from the global market last week enabled the Fed and bullion banks to bombard the Comex and LBMA with massive amounts of paper gold derivatives to push down the price of gold.
Of course, the shenanigans in the west have stimulated demand for gold even more in the Asian markets. Last night the market premium in Vietnam soared to over $91. Premiums this high in Vietnam have not been seen since at least 2011. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange the market premium soared to $12.47 above world gold – on Friday it was $8.20. It is rare when the premium gets this high on the SGE and signals very heavy demand.
In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we put closure – at least for us – on last week’s election and we explain why Trump has no intentions of “draining the Swamp” and why the current take-down in the price of gold and silver is setting the market up for a much bigger move higher:
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold prices fall in Asia on U.S. politics, rate hike expectations

Gold prices fell on Monday in Asia as investors gained clarity on the U.S. presidential election and noted the growing likelihood of a U.S. rate hike in December.Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.90% to $1,292.75 a troy ounce. Also on the Comex, for December delivery eased 0.78% to $18.227 a troy ounce. futures for December delivery dipped 0.04% to $2.259 a pound.

The outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections on Tuesday will capture market attention with news the FBI stood by its earlier recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Democrat Hillary Clinton for using a private email server likely aiding her chances over rival Donald Trump.Also later in the week, trade and inflation data out of China will be watched for indications on the strength of the world’s number-two economy is performing.

Last week, gold prices reversed losses to end higher on Friday as nervousness ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election offset a solid U.S. jobs report for October that supported that case for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.Recent opinion polls have pointed to an increasingly uncertain outcome for the U.S. presidential election, rattling global financial markets and pressuring the dollar lower.

The greenback remained on the defensive despite data showing that the U.S. economy continued to create jobs at a steady pace in October, although at a slightly slower rate than forecast.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday that the labor market continues to recover robustly despite a variety of negative shocks and now verges on full employment, aiding strong dollar sentiment.

The U.S. economy added 161,000 payroll jobs in October for an average increase of 181,000 per month this year, slower than last year’s 229,000 pace, but enough to keep the unemployment rate at around 5%.“The labor market has, by and large, had a pretty good year,” Fischer said in a speech prepared for the International Monetary Fund’s annual research conference.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

Investors are currently pricing in a 66.8% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.But analysts have warned that the U.S. central bank could hold off on hiking rates if the election outcome sparks market volatility.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold prices show small gains in Asia as U.S. durable goods data noted

Gold held small gains in Asia on Friday as investors continue to show some caution that the Fed could hold off on a widely-expected rate hike at the end of the year as data on durable goods disappointed.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange edged up 0.06% to $1,270.20 a troy ounce. Also on the Comex, for December delivery dipped 0.03% to $17.633 a troy ounce. futures dropped 0.18% to $2.160 a pound.

Overnight, gold prices extended overnight gains during North America’s session on Thursday, after data showed that orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in September.

Total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, dropped 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department said, compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, rose 0.2% last month, in line with forecasts.

Durable goods excluding defense and aircrafts slumped 1.2% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain.

A separate report released at the same time showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell less than expected, but remained in territory associated with a healthy labor market.

The number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 3,000 last week to 258,000, the Department of Labor said. Analysts expected jobless claims to fall by 6,000 to 255,000 from the previous week’s total of 261,000.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Gold, Oil Edge Higher

Comex gold futures finished a few cents higher Friday night in New York to notch up a gain of around 1% for the week - the first positive week for a while.Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US Presidential election and the timing of Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate hike helped to lift investment interest despite a stronger greenback.

Comex December gold futures added 20 cents to settle at $US1,267.70 an ounce, rebounding from earlier lows under $US1,262.The US dollar rose Thursday and Friday against the euro, in particular, in the wake of the European Central Bank’s to leave its monetary policy loose and relaxed.That saw the Aussie dollar slide sharply over the two days and it fell more than 2 US cents to close the week just above 75 US cents and looking to go lower.

This week’s September quarter inflation data will have a big influence on the value of the Aussie dollar especially if there is another weak reading. But most forecasters see a rate of 0.6% or so quarter on quarter and 1.3% to 1.5% annual.The consumer price inflation could be a touch higher than expected (as consumer inflation has been in China, NZ, the UK, US and Europe in the past couple of months as energy prices have slowly firmed). Fruit and vegetable prices were also higher in the quarter (especially tomatoes).

Elsewhere on Comex, December silver lost 5.6 cents, or 0.3%, to $US17.493 an ounce, cutting its gain for the week back to around to 0.3%.

December copper fell less than a penny to $US2.089 a pound, to be down about 1% on the week. Copper prices are down nearly 6% since the end of September.Meanwhile, US oil futures edged higher as well on Friday to be up around 1% for the week amid continuing optimism that OPEC and Russia will reach a firm deal on November 30 to curb output.Prices have now posted gains for five weeks in a row. December WTI crude on its first full day as a front-month contract, settled at $50.85, up 22 cents, or 0.4%.In Europe, Brent crude fell around 0.3% for the week and December futures in London added 40 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $US51.78 a barrel.And in a further pointer to high inflation (at least in the US), American retail petrol (gas) prices are on the verge of doing something they have done in more than two years: climb above their year-ago levels.

“A long running streak for U.S. consumers is about to end,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, in a note to clients, and reported by Marketwatch.
“The national U.S. average price of gasoline, as compiled by OPIS for AAA, will soon rise above the year-ago price.” He pointed out that as of Friday, nationwide gas prices have been cheaper than year-ago levels for 831 consecutive days.On Friday, the average cost for a gallon or regular gasoline was $US2.2295 a gallon, compared with $US2.236 on Oct. 21, 2015, according to data compiled by OPIS for AAA. Mr Kloza reckons the price will rise above where it was a year ago Sunday or Monday this week.
Read More - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold gains in Asia as British pound drops sharply on Brexit views

Gold gained in Asia on Friday as the pound plunged in thin trade as investors awaited U.S. jobs data and the return of China to the markets next week after a week-long holiday.
Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.41% to $1,258.15 a troy ounce. Silver futures for December delivery on the Comex recovered to $17.343 a troy ounce, nearly flat.

The British pound fell sharply in Asia Friday on growing concerns over the terms of a break from the European Union following comments by the government earlier this week the formal move would come by March of next year.
Market participants were focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the job market, as the Federal Reserve has indicated that future interest rate decisions will be data-dependent.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 175,000 in September, following an increase of 151,000 in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.9%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% after gaining 0.1% a month earlier.
Overnight, gold prices extended overnight losses to touch the lowest level in almost four months during North America's session on Thursday, amid growing expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 1 decreased by 5,000 to 249,000 from the previous week’s total of 254,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 to 257,000 last week.
First-time claims were the lowest since April, when initial applications for aid were at levels not seen since November 1973.

A strong nonfarm payrolls report would reinforce the view that a U.S. rate hike in December may be on the cards, after hawkish signals from senior Fed officials in recent weeks revived speculation of a rate hike before the end of the year. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are pricing in a 63.4% chance of a rate hike by December. November odds were at 14.5%.
The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold up on short covering as Deutsche Bank concerns ease

Gold rose slightly early Monday on short covering after a volatile session on Friday as concerns about Deutsche Bank's health eased.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to $1,319.40 an ounce by 0151 GMT.

* U.S. gold futures were up 0.4 percent at $1,322.30 an ounce.

* Deutsche Bank is throwing its energies into reaching a settlement before next month's presidential election with U.S. authorities demanding a fine of up to $14 billion for mis-selling mortgage-backed securities.

* The absence of top consumer China, where markets are shut from Oct 1-9 for Chinese National Day holidays, is expected to keep trading volumes low.

* U.S. consumer spending fell in August for the first time in seven months while inflation showed signs of accelerating, mixed signals that could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about raising interest rates.

* Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long position in COMEX gold for the first time in three weeks in the week to Sept. 27.

* Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund fell 0.13 percent to 947.95 tonnes on Friday.

* A drop in gold prices prompted consumers to buy the precious metal, ahead of festivals in India, the wedding season and China's long National Day holidays, boosting demand in Asia.

* A judge in Argentina ruled on Friday to keep Barrick Gold Corp's operations at Veladero mine suspended, saying repairs were not sufficient to reopen it after a leak of processing solution containing cyanide earlier this month.

* Protesters blocking access to Goldcorp Inc's Penasquito gold mine in northern Mexico said on Friday they will not leave until there is an agreement with the company over demands for jobs and compensation for water use and environmental damage.

* Russia may announce an auction for the Sukhoi Log gold deposit in December and its results may be announced in January, RIA news agency quoted Natural Resources Minister Sergei Donskoi as saying on Friday.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Higher Gold Prices Boosts Yamana Stock (AUY)

For the second day in a row, shares of Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY), which have synced up with gold prices, moved higher. The Toronto-based gold and copper exploration company rose as high as 2.27% Tuesday, reaching a session high of $4.50 on solid trading volume.

Gold for December delivery rose during Tuesday's session on the COMEX by 0.1% to $1,319.10 per ounce, spurred by the start of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. Analysts don't expect the Fed to take action when the meeting ends on Wednesday, but investors expect to receive signals that suggest a rate hike is coming as early as December. (See also: Yamana Gold Rises With Higher Gold Prices.)

Despite their recent bounce and five-day rise of about 1%, Yamana shares have fallen more than 15% over the past month amid fears of a rate increase. When interest rates rise, gold struggles to compete with other assets such as equities that bear yield. As a result, investors often flock to where yields are. With analysts expressing doubts that a rate hike will happen this week, investors have begun to speculate in the opposite direction.

"We are back in this pattern where the expectations about the next rate hike determine the short-term swings—when they are pushed backwards, gold rises and when they are pulled forward gold declines," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke, according to Reuters.

"The Fed will prepare markets for a rate hike, possibly in March next year, expectation of which will be positive for the dollar and in turn negative for gold," Menke added. (See also: How a Rate Hike Could Impact Gold.)

It remains to be seen what the Federal Reserve will do once its two-day policy meeting is over Wednesday. In the meantime, with gold prices, which hit a two-week low last Thursday, beginning to rebound, investors are in an apparent race to quickly buy back in.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Oil Surges After U.S. Crude Supplies Tumble the Most Since 1999

Oil jumped the most in almost five months after the biggest drawdown in U.S. crude inventories in 17 years.
Crude inventories fell 14.5 million barrels last week, the biggest drop since January 1999, according to the Energy Information Administration. A 905,000-barrel gain was projected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the release. Tropical Storm Hermine moved into the Gulf of Mexico on Aug. 28, disrupting shipping and output before moving northeast. Imports tumbled 1.85 million barrels, while refinery activity increased.

“We had an enormous drop in imports, which explains the inventory number,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $5.2 billion. “Imports were off by almost 1.9 million barrels a day last week, which, when multiplied by seven, is pretty close to the size of the draw. I’m surprised the market is reacting as strongly as it is because there should be big build next week.”

Oil rallied in August partly on speculation that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia would agree on measures to stabilize the market at a meeting this month. While Iran continues to keep investors guessing whether it will join a potential freeze accord, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Monday he’s optimistic producers will agree to cooperate. A falling dollar is also boosting the appeal of oil as an investment.
Storm Activity

West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose $2.12, or 4.7 percent, to $47.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest gain since April 8, leaving prices at the highest close since since Aug. 26. Total volume traded was 38 percent above the 100-day average at 2:42 p.m.
Brent for November settlement climbed $2.01, or 4.2 percent, to $49.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude closed at a $1.73 premium to WTI for November delivery.

For a story on four scenarios for nations attending the Algiers talks, click here.
"The huge number is clearly a result of storm activity in the Gulf," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "It’s a fluke but, all the same, prices are going to move higher in the short term."
Late Arrivals
Delayed cargoes may be arriving this week, leading to a big import increase in the next report, O’Grady said. There were about 30 oil tankers waiting to enter the Houston Ship Channel as of 10:20 a.m. local time, according to Patrick Seeba, operations director at Greater Houston Port Bureau.
U.S. crude supplies declined to 511.4 million in the week ended Sept. 2, according to EIA data. Inventories reached 543.4 million barrels in the week ended April 29, the highest since 1929. The stockpiles remain at their highest seasonal level in more than 20 years.
"One data point does not a make a trend," said Mark Watkins, the Park City, Utah-based regional investment manager for The Private Client Group of U.S. Bank, which oversees $133 billion in assets. "We will have to see if this continues before getting too concerned."

Record Inputs

Refineries increased operating rates by 0.9 percentage points to 93.7 percent of capacity, the highest since November. Plants usually begin to cut back on operations in August as the peak-demand driving season comes to an end.
Refinery inputs of crude, natural gas liquids and other fluids into distillation units rose 1.6 percent to 17.3 million barrels a day, the most in data going back to 1989.
Gasoline supplies dropped 4.21 million barrels to 227.8 million last week, the lowest since December. Imports dropped 27 percent to 607,000 barrels a day, the lowest since April. Demand for the motor fuel rose 0.9 percent to 9.6 million barrels a day.
Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, rose 3.38 million barrels to 158.1 million, the highest since April.
Gasoline futures for October delivery climbed 5.2 percent to $1.4165 a gallon, the biggest gain since May. October diesel rose 3.9 percent to $1.4822.

Oil-market news:

Iran is pumping 3.8 million barrels a day, Ghamsari said on Wednesday. The nation may continue boosting output beyond pre-sanctions levels.
Iraq’s oil production will continue to grow, rising as much as 150,000 barrels a day every year in the near term, Falah Al-Amri, the head of Iraq’s Oil Marketing Co., said Thursday.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its oil production dropped by 40,000 barrels a day in August to 10.63 million barrels, according a person with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified because the information hadn’t yet been made public.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Gold Prices Reverse Course as Dollar Gains

Gold prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. dollar strengthened and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged.

Gold for December delivery settled down 0.6% at $1,341.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, reversing course after trading as high as $1,352.50 earlier in the session. The drop marked the second consecutive day of losses for the precious metal.

The ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged sparked selling in government bonds and a rise in yields, which put pressure on gold prices, said Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets.

ECB President Mario Draghi “ kept his weapon in the holster today,” said Mr. Wong. “The higher interest rates created a little bit of a correction in gold.”

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold, which pays its holders nothing and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, was recently up 0.3% at 86.13. A stronger dollar is typically bearish for gold, because it makes the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive for investors who hold other currencies.

The strength of the dollar has been a driving factor for the gold price for the past few weeks, acting as a signal for expectations on the timing of a future U.S. rate increase, said Carsten Menke, a commodities research analyst at Julius Baer.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

Commodities Round-up: Rise in US inventories weighs on oil futures

Oil futures remained in retreat mode for a second successive session on Thursday (1 September) as overnight US inventory data weighed on trading sentiment. At 2:17pm BST, the Brent front month futures contract was 1.11% or 52 cents lower at $46.37 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate fell 0.98% or 44 cents to $44.26 per barrel.

Data released overnight by the US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 2.3m barrels stateside to 525.9m barrels in the week to 26 August.

The rise exceeded market forecasts of an increase in the 700,000 to 825,000 barrel range, prompting an early oil market sell-off in Asian trading. The trading pattern became firmly entrenched when Europe opened for business, with dollar bulls also out in full force.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are due to meet in Algiers on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF) on 26-28 September to revive global output freeze talks that stalled in April.

However, analysts remain sceptical of anything concrete emerging from the Algiers talks. In a note to clients, Commerzbank analysts said: "There is still lots of correction potential, given the overhang of speculative long positions and exaggerated hopes for an output freeze."

Nonetheless, speaking in Tokyo, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers were increasingly moving towards "a common position, toward a common effort."

"If you want to have an impact then all of us have to shoulder the responsibility, and over the past five or six months, I believe that there has been an increasing realisation that this is a collective effort," he concluded.

Away from the oil market, the strength of the dollar dented confidence in major precious metals. At 2:39pm BST, Comex gold for December delivery fell 0.14% or $1.80 to a two-month low of $1,309.60 an ounce.

With a US interest rate hike back on the cards, analysts at Kitco Metals said more bad news was on the horizon for gold investors adding that "the path of least resistance continues to be lower." Kitco's view was echoed by analysts at Natixis who opined that a US rate hike could arrive as early as December.

Elsewhere, Comex silver slipped 0.03% or 2 cents to $18.71 an ounce. Concurrently, spot platinum was lower by 0.84% or $8.88 to $1,043.23 an ounce, completing declines across the precious metals market board.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php

USD/JPY Forex Signal

USD/JPY Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at 102.83.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%

Trades must be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time only, over the next 24-hour period.

 Short Trade 1

Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 103.96.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.


Long Trade 1

Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 102.21.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

USD/JPY Analysis

I was right yesterday to not be looking to get short just yet. The pair continued to rise strongly and made even higher new highs around the Tokyo close earlier, although it may be cooling off now.

The long-term trend is still bearish but it is being called more and more into question and it seems that the momentum for the short-term is still bullish as that is the way sentiment on the USD is inclined.

Much will now depend on the forthcoming U.S. economic data releases. If they are better than expected, we can expect further healthy upswings. If much worse, then this pair will probably top out and begin to fall.
Read more - https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

A Stronger Dollar Pressured Gold on August 30

Gold was stable in the early morning hours on Tuesday, August 30, but fell during the day under the weight of a stronger dollar. At 1:35 PM EDT on August 30, the COMEX gold futures contract for December delivery was trading at $1,315.85 per ounce, a drop of ~0.85%.

The COMEX silver futures contract for September delivery was trading at $18.56 per ounce, a drop of ~1.1%. Please read How Did Copper, Gold, and Silver Perform Early on August 30? to see how metals traded early on Tuesday morning.
Read more -

https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/

Housing sector lifts U.S., European stocks; oil pares gains

Homebuilders provided a modest lift to both U.S. and European stock markets on Tuesday, while oil prices got a brief boost from Iran's positive signals on an output freeze.

On Wall Street, technology companies led the Nasdaq to a record intraday high and robust housing market data strengthened the case for a firming economy.

Housing stocks jumped 2 percent .HGX after the Commerce Department reported new U.S. single-family home sales soared unexpectedly in July to near nine-year highs.

European equities rose 0.9 percent , led by mining stocks, after data pointed to continuing gradual improvement in the region's economy.

Shares of the region's homebuilders also gained following a solid update from UK homebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L), which closed 4.2 percent higher and was the biggest riser on the blue-chip FTSE 100 .FTSE. The index closed at its highest level since the UK voted to leave the European Union.

The housing data helped traders fill the gap as markets await further clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates this year. Global central bankers gather in the mountains of Wyoming later this week and investors are focused on a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Friday.

"If we continue to keep getting strong economic data it will become hard for the Fed to rationalize not hiking rates," said Erik Wytenus, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in Palm Beach Florida.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 17.88 points, or 0.1 percent, to 18,547.3, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 4.26 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,186.9 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 15.48 points, or 0.3 percent, to 5,260.08.

Big gains in oil prices, which had jumped as much as 2 percent on signals from Iran, were squeezed in post-settlement trading after data showed a surprise build-up in U.S. crude stocks.

The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories rose by 4.5 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19, to 524.2 million. Analysts had expected a decrease of 455,000 barrels. [EIA/S]

After settling much higher, brent crude LCOc1 was still trading up about 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $49.53 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 69 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $48.10.
Read more -

https://www.goldcruderesearch.com/comex.php