Forex - Dollar down in Asia on Iran tensions, Aussie gains on trade

The buck fell in Asia on Thursday with sentiment blended as tensions between Iran and the U.S. over a ballistic missile test this week through Tehran sparked geopolitical risk worries whereas the Aussie won on strong alternate knowledge.

U.S. nationwide safety Adviser Michael Flynn mentioned late Wednesday the White home has put Iran "on notice" over the missile check, raising concerns over steps that the U.S. may take. Later, Trump tweeted that Iran has usurped energy in neighboring Iraq.

"Iran is unexpectedly taking on an increasing number of of Iraq even after the U.S. has squandered three trillion greenbacks there. evident way back!"
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s power against a alternate-weighted basket of six main currencies, eased 0.11% to ninety nine.fifty eight. USD/JPY modified arms at 113.05, down zero.17% and EUR/USD rose zero.09% to 1.0780.

AUD/USD jumped 0.72% to 0.7644.
In Australia, the AIG manufacturing index fell to 51.2 for January, nonetheless in enlargement however smartly under the earlier month stage of fifty five.4. The change balance for December came in at a surplus of 3.511 billion, wider than the two.20 billion surplus expected.

overnight, the buck made modest positive aspects on Wednesday as the Fed held consistent as expected, however signaled an upbeat view on the economic system and the chance of sticking to a forecast of as many as three fee hikes this yr.

The Federal Reserve held its fireplace on rates of interest as extensively expected on Wednesday, however was optimistic on the outlook for the financial system in preserving its benchmark overnight lending price target at 0.5% to zero.seventy five% following a 25 basis level hike in December.

“Measures of consumer and trade sentiment have improved of late,” the committee stated in its statement, using new language that jibes with voices on Wall boulevard following the election of Donald Trump as president.

“Job positive factors remained stable and the unemployment charge stayed close to its up to date low,” the statement said, reflecting only a minor tweak from language on the December assembly.

As neatly, payroll processing firm ADP mentioned non-farm personal employment rose by using 246,000 ultimate month, simply surpassing forecasts for an increase of one hundred sixty five,000. The Institute for provide management stated its index of manufacturing task rose to 56.0 last month from December’s studying of fifty four.5. That was once its perfect degree given that November 2014. Analysts had forecast a smaller elevate to 55.zero.

The dollar had tumbled on Tuesday, after Donald Trump’s top change adviser accused Germany of currency exploitation, announcing it is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to take advantage of the U.S. and its buying and selling partners. In separate remarks, President Trump criticized Japan and China, pronouncing they devalued their currencies to the disadvantage of the U.S.

The remarks indicated that the buck alternate price can have a prominent position to play in Trump's 'the usa First' agenda. the only forex showed little response to an earlier record showed that German manufacturing increase accelerated to its quickest p.c. in three years in January.

VISIT - Gold Crude Research

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 16-20

The Jamaican dollar held firm against the US dollar trading at J$128.55 on Friday, January 6, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s daily foreign exchange trading summary.Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar ended trading at J$96.30, down from J$96.71, while the British pound sterling ended trading at J$156.93, down from J$157.23.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.2256 and dropped to a low of 1.2033, testing resistance at 1.2201. The pair then reversed directions and climbed to a high of 1.2305, as resistance held at 1.2311 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.2160.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8560

EUR/GBP - 0.8486

Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

New strategy  : Sell at 0.8560, Target: 0.8430, Stop: 0.8600


Although the single currency rallied to 0.8669 late last week, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.8450, then 0.8420-30, however, break of 0.8375 is needed to signal the rebound from 0.8304 (last month's low) has ended, bring further subsequent decline to 0.8332 support.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 0.8550-60 should limit upside. Only break of 0.8605-10 would abort and suggest the retreat from 0.8669 has ended instead, risk retest of this last week's high later.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
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Forex: J$128.95 to one US dollar

The Jamaican dollar held firm against the US dollar trading at J$128. 95 on Friday, December 2, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s daily foreign exchange trading summary.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar ended trading at J$97.24, up from J$94.67, while the British pound sterling ended trading at J$162.12, up from J$161.30.
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Dollar falls, ending 10-day streak; Japan quake boosts yen

The dollar dropped on Monday after rising 10 straight days as investors consolidated gains after the election of a Republican president who is expected to adopt fiscal policies that will lead to interest rate increases.Reports of an earthquake in Japan weighed on the dollar against the safe-haven yen and boosted the euro and other currencies. The single euro zone currency rose to session highs after the earthquake news,

Late on Monday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said an earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.3 hit northern Japan, and it issued tsunami advisories for much of the nation's northern Pacific coast.An earthquake in 2011 in Japan resulted in nearly a 7 percent appreciation of the yen for the first few days after the quake on the expectation of increased repatriation flows.

In late trading, the dollar fell from six-month highs against the yen to trade 0.1 percent lower at 110.80 yen JPY=.Given a shortened trading week because of the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, analysts said, there is little on the horizon that could change expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, a action considered supportive of the dollar.

The greenback's weakness on Monday though benefited the euro, which rose from an 11-month low last Friday. Recent political developments have eased the uncertainty surrounding next year's European elections in countries such as Germany.Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said the dollar's slide was just a correction or, at the very least, a consolidation. He remained upbeat on the dollar's medium-term outlook because of rising rates amid expectations of stronger U.S. growth.

The dollar index last traded down 0.3 percent at 100.90 .DXY. Over the last 10 days, it has risen nearly 5 percent, with investors betting increased fiscal spending by the incoming Donald Trump administration will stoke inflation and propel interest rates higher.
That said, Scott Smith, director of hedging solutions at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto noted that Fed Chair Janet Yellen in testimony to Congress last week struck a cautious tone on the U.S. economy. The Fed, he added, was seemingly in no rush to factor in the likelihood of increased fiscal stimulus into its economic models.
This poses a risk to the market's bullish bias on the dollar, he added.

Meanwhile, analysts said German Chancellor Angela Merkel's announcement on Sunday that she will seek a fourth term, while not a surprise, is viewed as euro-positive. Merkel is seen as a defender of liberal democracy in the West at a time investors are fretting about a wave of populism and anti-globalization in Europe.The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.0601 EUR= in late trading, after touching its lowest since December 2015 on Friday.
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Black cash doubles dollar rate in grey forex market

The dollar has almost doubled to Rs 128 in the grey market as demonetisation prompted many with unaccounted cash in old high denomination notes to convert them into dollars. The pound has touched Rs 130 while the dirham was at Rs 30. In the interbank forex market, the rupee closed at 67.83 a dollar.

Sources said since the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, several businessmen and investors who deal in cash have bought huge quantities of foreign currency or gold biscuits from the black market. This has badly hit the flow of foreign currency even to official agents. "For the last 10 days there is a shortage of foreign currencies, particularly US dollars, pounds, euros and dirhams. People are buying foreign currencies at any rate, the only condition is that we should accept banned denominations," said a trader from Bohra Bazaar, Fort.

Sources in the foreign exchange market said since November 8, the demand for foreign currency is so huge that money changers in the grey market are finding it difficult to cope. Gold in the grey market has touched Rs 50,000 per gram.

Licenced money changers are unable to sell foreign currency due to shortage of Indian currency for exchange. Business travellers who have returned and visiting foreign tourists have been badly hit. "There is no rolling of foreign currency," said a licenced money changer.
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Stocks slip after US election rally, bond yields rise further, dollar climbs

Stocks on major world markets gave back some of the week's gains on Friday, while global bond yields rose for a fifth day, supporting the U.S. dollar but pressuring commodities and emerging markets.Investors are anticipating that U.S. President-elect Trump's policies will include lower tax rates and more infrastructure spending to grow the economy, but at the expense of a wider fiscal deficit and inflation.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended at a record closing high of 18,847.66. The S&P 500 index .SPX slipped 0.14 percent to 2,164.45, weighed down by weakness in energy stocks as oil prices fell, but the benchmark index was up 3.8 pct for the week, as was the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC, its best week since 2011.
Since the election on Tuesday, equity sectors that have benefited include banks and pharmaceuticals which may see less regulation under a Trump administration, while technology stocks are seen threatened by anti-trust policies and possible disruption of global supply chains posed by more protectionist trade policies.

The S&P financials stock index .SPSY closed up 0.4 percent on Friday and up 11.3 percent for the week, the best weekly performance since May 2009.The S&P healthcare stock index .SPXHC fell 1.5 percent on Friday but ended the week up 5.8 percent, its best week gain in over two years.

The Nasdaq biotechnology index .NBI fell 0.64 percent on Friday but ended the week up 10 percent, its best week since 2000."Wall Street is going to be watching a lot of (Trump's) appointments and policy announcements to see whether it validates the more optimistic tone we've seen in the markets in the past few days," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist and director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.European shares fell on Friday also as commodities stocks fell with oil prices and stocks exposed to emerging markets slumped on concern that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will introduce protectionist trade policies.

The STOXX Europe 600 index closed 0.4 percent lower but the pan-European index gained 2.6 percent this week, the best weekly performance since mid-July"After panic buying, a more rational and selective phase has started," said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital in Milan. "The political and economic obstacles to his plans must not be underestimated".

The mining sector index .SXPP fell 2.0 percent as investors took profits from a rally of more than 10 percent in basic resources stocks this week.The European oil and gas index .SXEP closed 2.2 percent weaker, mirroring steep losses in crude oil prices after OPEC said October output reached another record, casting doubt on whether it can limit persisting oversupply.A sell-off in emerging markets hurt companies such as Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and South African paper and packing maker Mondi (MNDI.L), which dropped 6.3 percent and 4.7 percent respectively.

The MSCI emerging markets index .MSCIEF fell 2.9 percent.MSCI's all-country world index .MIWD00000PUS lost 0.6 percent but saw its best week in seven.

GLOBAL BOND YIELDS RISE FOR FIFTH DAY

Global bond markets sold off further Friday though the U.S. Treasury market was closed for the U.S. Veterans Day federal holiday. U.S. Treasury futures fell to ten-month lows on Friday.In Europe, Italian 10-year yields IT10YT=RR climbed over 2.0 percent for the first time since September 2015 while German 10-year yields rose for a fifth day.Global bond markets have seen the biggest loss of value this week since June 2013 when the Federal Reserve first discussed "tapering" its bond buying program.

The Federal Reserve is monitoring an increase in long-term U.S. government borrowing costs and will adjust policy accordingly if necessary, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said on Friday.
In his first remarks since the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, Fischer added that economic growth prospects appear strong enough for the Federal Reserve to proceed with a gradual increase in interest rates.
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India scraps its two largest rupee notes in shocking anti-corruption move

Notes worth 500 and 1,000 rupees will be invalid starting at midnight local time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced during a televised address to the nation.
The unexpected move is designed to fight against corruption and money laundering, Modi said, calling them "diseases" and "obstacles" to the country's economic success.
Modi said that policy changes had largely failed to root out corruption. Two years ago, he said, India was ranked 100th in terms of global corruption perception, and the country has only improved to 76th.

Related: India's tax dodgers still hiding hundreds of billions

The idea is that Indians who have stockpiled undeclared income will now be forced to come out of the shadows."This step will strengthen the hands of the common man in the fight against corruption, black money and fake currency," said Modi, who leads the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

But the ban could also spark a mad scramble as ordinary Indians seek to exchange or deposit their cash. Modi said citizens have 50 days to deposit at banks and post offices. Hospitals will be allowed to accept the banned notes for another three days, until Nov. 11.
That transition will not be an easy task. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates that there are 16.5 billion 500 rupee notes and 6.7 billion 1000 rupee notes currently in circulation. ATMs will be shut on Nov. 9 and 10 to help implement the change.

Related: India's new central banker serves up surprise interest rate cut

The central bank is also preparing to issue a new series of 500 and 2,000 rupee notes, which are slated to enter circulation by Nov. 10.
Until then, the largest legal bill in circulation will be the 100 rupee note, which is worth only $1.50.In a country where taxi drivers and shopkeepers are already reluctant to part with small bills, the sudden policy change could complicate business transactions in the short term.
India is believed to have lost out on over $100 billion in uncollected tax, a large percentage of which is illegally stashed offshore.

Only 2% of Indians pay any income tax at all because most people work in the economy's informal sector that includes jobs such as construction laborers and road side food sellers.
Modi also touted the move as an anti-terrorism measure, saying that "enemies across the border have run their operations using fake currency notes," a reference to neighboring Pakistan.
"The 500 and 1,000 rupee notes hoarded by anti-national and anti-social elements will become just worthless pieces of paper," he said.
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November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For November, as we have done for all months in 2016, we have expanded our focus on the period of 1996 to 2015 in recognition of the evolving relationship between economic data, central banks, and financial markets.

The longer observation period captures several crisis events/periods that traders may find analogous to events unfolding today, even as the ramifications from Brexit are unclear: the Asian crisis; the US tech bubble; the US housing bubble; the global commodity bubble; and previous rate hiking and rate cutting cycles, from the major central banks,during times normal (pre-2008) or extraordinary (post-2008). By increasing the sample size to 20 years, we believe the statistical stability of the estimates will have increased relative to utilizing a shorter time-frame/smaller sample size.

Of course, this month, there is an obvious but necessary caveat to mention: the US Presidential elections. Given the dramatic behavior in which the market has behaved around developments late in the election cycle, there is a strong chance that a surprising result on Tuesday could upend the November seasonality forecasts – just as the June 24 Brexit vote proved to be disruptive to seasonality trends in June and July.

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EURUSD)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

November is a bearish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to its recently consistent performance metrics. The pair has lost ground 55% of the time in November over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was -61-pips per month. Recently, EUR/USD has fallen in November in two consecutive years and four of the last six overall.

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBPUSD)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

From a seasonality perspective, November is very bearish month for GBP/USD, due to its consistent performance metrics. GBP/USD has depreciated 70% of the time in November over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was a modest -89-pips per month. Cable has traded lower in each of the past two Novembers and its 2013 rally was its first gain since 2006.

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USDJPY)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

September is a slightly bullish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective, due to its recently consistent performance metrics. The pair has rallied 55% of the time in November over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was +107-pips per month. USD/JPY has gained in four years in a row and five of the last six overall.

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUDUSD)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

November is a neutral month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to its inconsistent performance metrics. The pair has rallied 55% of the time in November over the past 20 years, yet its average performance during this time frame was -30-pips per month. Coincidentally, AUD/USD has alternated between gains in one year followed by losses in the following two. Gains in Novembers 2009, 2012, and 2015 were preceded by two years of losses.

Forex Seasonality in USDOLLAR

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

From a seasonality perspective, November is a bullish month for the USDOLLAR Index. The aggregate tracker of greenback value has rallied 59% of the time while, and has, on average*, gained +35-points per month during that timeframe. Recently, the USDOLLAR Index has gained ground in each of the past six years.

*USDOLLAR Index only has 17-year data from 1999 to 2015.

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZDUSD)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

November is a slightly bearish month, from a seasonality perspective, for NZD/USD. The pair has split time evenly between gains and losses in November over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame is minor -10-pips per month. November is a streaky month for the Kiwi, with the pair having lost ground in eight of the past nine years.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USDCAD)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

November is a bullish month for USD/CADfrom a seasonality perspective. The pair has rallied 65% of the time in November over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame is +57-pips per month. Recently, USD/CAD has gained ground in three consecutive years and in eight of the past ten overall.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USDCHF)

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

From a seasonality perspective, September is a bullish month for USD/CHF, due to its consistent performance metrics. The pair has appreciated 60% of the time in September over the past 20 years, and its average performance during this time frame was +51-pips per month. Recently, USD/CHF has gained in September in each of the past two years.

Forex Seasonality in S&P 500

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

November is typically a bullish month for the S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective, no matter how you slice it. The index has rallied 70% of the time in November, over the past 20 years, with the month averaging +16.45-points. Negative performances have been notable, despite limited in occurrence; the tech bubble popping in 2000; and the US housing market bust in 2007; and the global financial crisis in 2008. Similarly, November 2010 and 2011 were clouded by uncertainty pertaining to the Euro-Zone sovereign debt crisis and the US debt ceiling, respectively. In other words: unless there is an unusual threat to global stability, US equities tend to do quite well in November.

Forex Seasonality in Gold

November Forex Seasonality Favors Return of US Dollar Strength

From a seasonality perspective, November is slightly bullish month for Gold, although its two worst losses ever came in two of the past three years. From 1996 to 2011, Gold rallied 69% of the time, resulting in an average performance of $21.93/oz per month. However, after losing ground in each of the past four years (2011 to 2015 average performance was -$39.57/oz per month), the 20-year seasonality performance has been dramatically weighed down. Now, overall, Gold has rallied 55% of the time in November over the past 20 years, yet its average performance during this time frame was down to +$9.64/oz per month.

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FOREX-Trump worries hand dollar worst week in 12, jobs data eyed

* Dollar index heads for worst week since August
* Political worries seen dominating FX market
* Trump election risk to offset any dollar gains on jobs report

 The dollar inched up from a four-week low on Friday ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report later in the day but was on track for its worst week in 12, pressured by worries that Donald Trump could win next week's U.S. presidential election.

The greenback has fallen 1.2 percent this week against a basket of major currencies as Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Trump in polls has dwindled following the re-emergence of a controversy over her private email server.The U.S. currency hit a nine-month high last week as investors bet that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates later this year, but a Trump victory is seen creating political turmoil, while a Clinton victory is seen as a continuation of the status quo.

"Political uncertainty ... tends to be currency-negative because the markets find it more difficult to work out how things like trade policy and foreign policy are going to play out in the economy," said Rabobank currency strategist Jane Foley."What we do know about Trump is that he favours protectionist policies. And what we know about protectionist policies is that they're likely to be inflationary. That brings on a layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve."

Economists polled by Reuters forecast 175,000 jobs to have been added in October, in data due at 1230 GMT. An upbeat jobs report is expected to bolster bets on a December rate hike, which would typically push U.S. yields higher and support the greenback.
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Should You Trade Forex During Retirement?

If you are lucky, you find yourself reaching a golden age where you can retire from the professional world to enjoy a life of comfortable leisure. Though we all aspire to have physical health and wealth when we retire, it is all too common for retirees to find themselves wishing that they were more financially stable. For this reason, new retirees often ask themselves if there is something they can do that is not too difficult, stressful or time consuming to supplement their retirement income or capital. Forex trading might fit the bill, but there are several considerations that must be made before proceeding.

Free Time

Most retirees would agree that the best thing about being retired is having lots of free time. Forex trading is something you can do at home and you can keep one eye on the screen even if you are busy with something else. So, it seems that regarding time, trading during retirement can work very well. Of course, if you plan to be very active playing golf, volunteering, travelling or visiting your grandchildren, that is something to take into account – you may not be available during the most ideal trading times to make Forex trading into a serious hobby or pursuit.

Financial Pressure & Risk

It is well known that the easiest psychological situation for traders is when there is little or no pressure to make profit immediately or regularly. This is an area where the exact circumstances of your retirement will matter. If you are well capitalized and can be relaxed about when profit arrives, you are in a strong trading situation and should be able to remain psychologically healthy which could stop you making any expensive or emotionally destructive mistakes.

Alternatively, if you are trying to make an additional regular or semi-regular income to supplement your retirement income and you truly need this money, you are putting yourself in what could likely be a very bad situation. At this stage in your life, you want to leave you IRA (Individual Retirement Account or non-U.S. equivalent) alone. It is especially dangerous to put yourself under this kind of emotional, physical and financial pressure during retirement as if you suffer bad losses, you probably won’t have a chance in life to recover from it. This is truly the number one factor you should be considering.

It must be emphasized that risk factors must to be taken extremely seriously at this stage in your life. Capital preservation must be the number one priority!

Emotional and Physical Health

You might not be at your peak physical health by the time you retire. Even though it is more than likely that you have all your wisdom and intelligence intact, you must be brutally honest with yourself and question how precisely you are going to be able to use technology under pressure. After all, trading is very unforgiving in the sense that even small errors can be very expensive, and cannot be reversed.

The good news is that there are some steps you can take in this area to minimize the risks. Firstly, you can trade using a slower system, perhaps relying upon daily, four-hour or hourly charts, which should enable events to unfold at a much more relaxed and manageable pace. This might reduce the room for errors to creep in. Secondly, you might also have a companion or helper who could provide a second pair of eyes to cast a look at your operations in the market. Thirdly, it is worth asking your broker about built-in safety measures that might be available for your protection. For example, some brokers have a feature where if you enter an unusually large trade size, it asks you to reconfirm the trade before proceeding. This type of safeguard can protect against “fat finger” mistakes. It is worth asking your account manager whether he (or she) could implement something informally for your account, for example by requiring telephone confirmation to make a trade over a certain size.

Forex Trading Strategies for Seniors

If you have weighed the pros and cons and have decided to go ahead, you need to decide what kind of trading strategy you will be using.

A trend-following strategy could be ideal as these are long-term strategies that don’t require a lot of physical effort or emotional stress.

If you insist upon taking advantage of the fact that you are master of your own time and you wish to look at shorter time frames, you might consider only trading major session opens. This could be 8am to 10am London time, New York time or Tokyo time, depending upon which time zone you are located in. Usually it is the London and New York opens that are the most fruitful. I once read a very convincing trading journal by a retired couple who decide what to trade that day and in what direction just before 8am London time, then they look for trade entries between 8am and 10am before continuing with their day. There is no reason why this couldn’t be the basis of an excellent and profitable Forex trading strategy for seniors.

Forex: J$129.15 to one US dollar and China banks' net Sept forex sales hit $28.4 bln as outflows rise

The US dollar on Thursday, October 20, ended trading at J$129.15, up by 23 cents, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s daily foreign exchange trading summary.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar ended trading at J$98.08, down from J$99.16, while the British pound sterling ended trading at J$158.10, up from J$157.33.

* Sept forex sales tripled from August's $9.5 bln

* SAFE says higher capital outflows mostly due to seasonal factors

* Capital outflows put pressure on yuan currency

BEIJING, Oct 21 Net foreign exchange sales by China's commercial banks in September tripled to $28.4 billion from the previous month as capital outflows increased, the country's foreign exchange regulator said on Friday.The August net sales were $9.5 billion, which were a sharp drop from $31.7 billion in July.

For the January to September period, net forex sales stood at $243.4 billion, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement.But SAFE spokeswoman Wang Chunying said an increase in net capital outflows from China in the third quarter from the second was mostly due to seasonal factors.China's cross-border capital flows should be basically stable in the future, Wang told a news conference.

Earlier data indicated China's central bank sold a net $50.1 billion worth of foreign exchange in September, the highest in eight months, as it sought to support the weakening yuan as capital outflows picked up.Foreign exchange reserves fell for a third straight month in September and by slightly more than markets had expected, suggesting fresh outflows.

The yuan has lost nearly 3.8 percent against the dollar so far this year, making it one of the worst performing currencies in Asia

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EUR/USD Forex Signal

EUR/USD Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the bullish price action took place a little below the identified support level at 1.1201.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.


Long Trades

Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1120.Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

 Short Trade 1

Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1283.Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

EUR/USD Analysis

The price fell a little yesterday but was very weakly supported at around 1.1200. I still have this support level on the chart but I really don’t see it as being very useful.There is minor resistance overhead at about 1.1220.There is no long-term trend so I don’t see anything interesting in the entire range between 1.1120 and 1.1283, which means that any opportunities today are very likely to arise in other pairs and not this one.
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FOREX-Yen slips broadly on fears BOJ could cut negative rates more deeply

* Yen retreats vs dollar, euro, Aussie, sterling
* BOJ plans to make negative rates core of future easing-Nikkei
* Aussie, loonie post modest rebound after being hit by oil slide (Updates throughout)

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO, Sept 14 The yen slipped broadly on Wednesday after a report that the Bank of Japan is considering further monetary easing steps, including taking interest rates deeper into negative territory. The Nikkei business daily reported that the BOJ plans to make its controversial negative interest rate policy the centrepiece of future monetary easing, promising to weigh further cuts as expansions to asset buying near their limits.

"The view was already there that the BOJ could steepen Japan's excessively flat yield curve and deepen minus rates to lessen the negative impact on financial institutions," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo."But it appears that the such a view had not been fully priced in by the market." The euro added 0.5 percent to 115.670 yen and the Australian dollar climbed 0.7 percent to 77.06 yen. Sterling rose 0.8 percent to 135.85 yen.

The dollar extended overnight gains and was up 0.5 percent at 103.110 yen. The greenback briefly touched 103.200, its highest in eight days.The greenback treaded carefully against the yen, however, with a week still to go until the Federal Reserve's and BOJ's Sept. 20-21 meetings meaning there was plenty of time for speculation over policy to churn the market.

"The media report is about the BOJ considering a deeper cut in negative rates, but in a seemingly more broader time frame. As such, expectations that the BOJ would ease next week have not risen excessively," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo.

"The moves we are seeing today are irregular, with dollar/yen gaining despite weaker stocks. It is safe to say short-term flows are driving movements for now."The Dow sank 1.4 percent on Tuesday amid a slide in crude oil prices and the Nikkei was last down 0.25 percent.The euro was flat at $1.1219 after shedding 0.1 percent the previous day.

The dollar index was steady at 95.603 following an overnight gain of 0.25 percent, with a rise in U.S. long-term bond yields to a three-month high buoying the greenback.U.S. long-term yields have risen in the past month along with a steepening in the Japanese government bond yield curve caused by speculation over BOJ policy manoeuvres.

Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars posted a modest rebound after sliding overnight struggled against the U.S. currency on the back of a tumble in oil prices.
The Aussie was up 0.2 percent at $0.7484 after retreating more than one percent overnight to a seven-week low of $0.7443.

The Canadian dollar was a touch firmer at C$1.3077 to the dollar, putting a bit of distance between a one-month low of C$1.3190 seen on Tuesday. Oil prices fell as much as 3 percent on Tuesday after the global energy watchdog and OPEC revised forecasts, indicating the global crude glut could persist for much longer than expected. (Reporting by Shinich Saoshiro; Editing by Eric Meijer and Kim Coghill)
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GBP/USD Forex Signal - 6-9-16

GBP/USD Signals Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as although the resistance level at 1.3371 did cap the day’s high price, the following bearish inside candle on the hourly chart was not broken down by its next candle, so a short entry was not given.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.

 Long Trades

Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3256 or 1.3162.

Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.

Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.



Short Trades

Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3345, 1.3371 or 1.3479.

Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.

Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

GBP/USD Analysis

After a bullish week for the Pound, even within this pair despite the recent strength in the USD as well, there are some initial signs that the price may be topping out and preparing for some kind of move down. It looks as if the next day or so will probably be crucial. The resistance level at 1.3371 and also its lower peak at 1.3345 held fairly convincingly. We have had three taps showing upper wicks. We really just need a lower key swing high to made, preferably during the early London session, and then we would be well poised for a breakdown.

Alternatively, I the price can remain above 1.3371 it has quite a lot of room to rise further.There is nothing due today concerning the GBP. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.
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